Retailers' Footfall Up But Worrying Rise In Shop Vacancies

15th May 2017

Footfall in Scotland grew by 3.2 per cent in April, the third fastest growth rate of all the nations/regions and the fastest growth in Scotland itself since July 2014.

This rate was well above the three-month average of 1.8 per cent, the highest three-month average in Scotland since September 2014, and the 12-month average, which was flat.

Footfall grew on the High Street and in Retail Parks in Scotland, but fell in Shopping Centres.

The town centre vacancy rate for Scotland rose marginally to 9.2% in April, up from the 9.0% rate in January 2017. This remains lower than the average vacancy rate for the UK, which fell to 9.3% in April from 9.4% in January.

Ewan MacDonald-Russell, Head of Policy & External Affairs, Scottish Retail Consortium said "A mixed picture this quarter, with footfall rising but offset by a modest but nonetheless worrying increase in the high street vacancy rate. That shop vacancy rate is now standing at 9.2 per cent, up from 9 per cent in January, and the highest figure in almost two years. In itself that movement is not hugely significant, but with several other economic indicators in Scotland also raising concerns policymakers should pay close attention to the measures they take which affect retail premises; especially the upcoming Barclay review of business rates.

“There was much better news for retailers with strong footfall in April, which pushed the three-month average growth up to 1.8 per cent. In fact, these are the best shopper footfall figures in almost three years, and the highest three-month average we've seen in Scotland since September 2014. Both high streets and retail parks saw strong rises in footfall, with a 3.2 per cent rise into town centres across the quarter. The only area which has seen reduced footfall has been shopping centres, which have fallen by 2.5 per cent."

Diane Wehrle, Marketing and Insights Director of Springboard said, “As Easter fell in April this year as opposed to March last year, footfall in Scotland was boosted by +3.2 per cent. This was demonstrated by a +4.9 per cent rise in the first half of the month, which culminated in Good Friday and Easter Saturday, compared with a drop of -2.0 per cent in the last two weeks.

“Footfall generally was fuelled by the weakened Pound, driving both an increase in overseas tourists and in Easter staycations amongst domestic visitors demonstrated by a rise of +5.1 per cent in coastal towns, and of +7.9 per cent in historic towns. The underlying structural shift towards leisure focussed trips meant that whilst high street footfall rose by +1.9 per cent during retail trading hours, trips to high streets post 5pm increased by more than +3 per cent.

“The vacancy rate in Scotland weakened slightly, moving to 9.2 per cent from 9.0 per cent in January. And whilst the UK rate strengthened marginally from 9.4 per cent in January to 9.3 per cent, vacancies in eight of the ten geographic areas of the UK rose, with improvements only in London, the East and the North & Yorkshire. The vacancy rate is perhaps a portent of things to come; inflationary pressures are likely to increase that could suppress customer behaviour and therefore occupier demand.”