Food Prices Tracking In June - food inflation has hit 8.6%

26th June 2022

From the food foundation tracker.

On Wednesday, figures from the ONS revealed that overall inflation has increased even further to 9.1% in the 12 months to May 2022, reaching another 40 year high. This increase has been largely driven by increases in food prices1: take-home retail prices for commonly purchased food and drink items have risen by 8.6% in the 12 months to May 2022, a sharp increase from 6.7% in April. The invasion of Ukraine, labour costs and trade disruption from Brexit are all being cited as reasons for this rapidly deteriorating picture.

ONS data shows everyday low cost items increasing in price at similar rates to overall food inflation
Last month the ONS published a one-off piece of research exploring the impact of food price increases over the past year on everyday groceries, particularly looking at low cost items3. They found the average price rise of 30 everyday items in the past year was 6.7%, similar to what the CPI food inflation figures indicated. However, some items increased by considerably more such as the lowest cost pasta rising by 50% in the past year.

Contrary to Jack Monroe's observations, the data suggested that overall, the price of the lowest cost foods increased at a similar rate to other foods. Nevertheless, for people on tight incomes, this will make up a higher proportion of their disposable budget and therefore have a bigger impact on them than people with more flexibility.


These various measures of food price increases use different methodologies and explore different angles and therefore produce slightly different findings. What they all unequivocally show is that food prices have risen drastically and that for many, food is becoming increasingly unaffordable.


Worrying predictions are that prices will continue to rise
Predictions are that high food prices are going to be seen for, at the very least, the next year. A report released this month from IGD predicts that food prices are going to increase 15% over the summer; for a family of four, that equates to having to spend £516 more on food over the year4.

Similar findings from Kantar predict that the average grocery bill will rise £380 this year5. This prediction is over £100 higher than their estimates back in April which they revised after finding grocery prices had risen 8.3% in just 4 weeks. This shows the situation is escalating more than was originally thought.

Costs of other essentials are also predicted to continue to rise, putting further pressure on food budgets. The energy bill cap is due to increase considerably once again in October, marking an increase of over 100% in just one year. Eon estimate this will force 40% of their customers into fuel poverty6. Data from the IFS7 show how lower income households are expected to be disproportionately affected by inflation as they spend a higher proportion of their disposable income on gas and electricity bills:.

The cost of living crisis is not going to be short lived. The Bank of England are predicting overall inflation to hit 11% in October, and are not expecting it to fall back down to the 2% target until 2023. The one-off payments from Government to low incomes households to help with the cost of living crisis are a welcome start but longer term measures will be needed to get us through the cost of living crisis, and address the underlying issues that left many struggling to afford the essentials even before prices started to rise.

Read the article with more links and graphs HERE