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The freeze on income-tax thresholds is projected to mean about 780,000 more people will be paying income tax (i.e. newly become taxpayers) by 2029/30 compared with what would have happened had thresholds increased with inflation.

At the same time, around 920,000 more people are forecast to be pulled into the higher-rate (40%) income-tax band by 2029/30.

The number of additional-rate (45%) taxpayers is also projected to rise modestly — by roughly 4,000 more people by 2029/30, according to OBR estimates tied to the threshold freeze.

These figures are forecasts, not guarantees. They assume typical wage growth and economic conditions. If pay rises are larger (or smaller) than expected, or inflation behaves differently, the actual numbers could vary.

The frozen thresholds affect all kinds of income (wages, pensions, some benefits), and changes in employment patterns, pensioner incomes, or benefit reforms can shift outcomes.

For residents in Scotland, different income-tax rules apply — the Budget freeze applies in England, Wales and Northern Ireland; Scotland has devolved tax bands.

Even if your nominal pay stays the same, over time you're more likely to end up paying income tax (if you were previously below the tax-free allowance), or be pulled into a higher tax band, simply because thresholds are staying fixed while wages/price levels rise.

The increase in the number of taxpayers and higher-rate payers happens gradually — over the next 5 - 6 years — which is why this measure is often called a "stealth tax" or “fiscal drag.”

For many households, this will reduce disposable income even in absence of rises to nominal tax rates.

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