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On 26 November the UK Chancellor delivered her Budget, bringing to a close what has felt like a long period of speculation since the summer. The wait was not quite as long as anticipated however, as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) accidently published their Economic and Fiscal Forecast a few hours early, revealing many of the headline decisions taken in the Budget.

The OBR forecast that decisions taken in the UK Budget would increase the ‘fiscal headroom' to £22 billion (this is the gap that the UK Chancellor has between her spending commitments and  meeting her fiscal rules on debt and borrowing). The OBR suggest that this increases the probability of meeting the Chancellor's fiscal rule for a current budget surplus from 54 per cent in March to 59 per cent.

The forecast for economic growth has been revised up from 1 per cent in March 2025 to 1.5 per cent for 2025. However, growth rates for the later years have reduced slightly compared to the last forecast in March. Expectations for inflation have also been revised up from 3.3 per cent to 3.5 per cent for 2025, and from 2.1 per cent to 2.5 per cent for 2026. Unemployment is expected to remain at about 5 per cent until 2027, before falling back towards 4 per cent (which the OBR describe as the ‘estimated equilibrium rate').

The OBR also forecast that debt will rise as a share of GDP to 96 per cent by the end of the decade, which is two percentage points higher than was forecast in March. The market reaction has been mostly positive, with the Financial Times noting that UK gilts regained the ground they had lost since the U-turn on raising income tax was leaked.

Read the full Spice article At 
[url=https://spice-spotlight.scot/2025/11/27/uk-budget-2025-a-fiscal-reev-olution/]UK Budget 2025 - a fiscal Reev-olution?[/url]

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