Labour Market Overview For UK - December 2019
17th December 2019
Main points for August to October 2019.
The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than a year earlier but little changed on the previous quarter; despite just reaching a new record high, the employment rate has been broadly flat over the last few quarters.
The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8%, 0.3 percentage points lower than a year earlier but largely unchanged on the previous quarter.
The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier but largely unchanged on the previous quarter.
Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain slowed to 3.2% for total pay (including bonuses) and 3.5% for regular pay (excluding bonuses); the annual growth in total pay was weakened by unusually high bonus payments paid in October 2018 compared with more typical average bonus payments paid in October 2019.
In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), annual growth in total pay is estimated to be 1.5%, and annual growth in regular pay is estimated to be 1.8%.
There were an estimated 794,000 vacancies in the UK for September to November 2019; 20,000 fewer than last quarter and 59,000 fewer than a year earlier.
Estimated employment rates for men and women aged between 16 and 64 years have generally been increasing since early 2012 but have levelled off in recent periods (as seen in Figure 1). For August to October 2019:
the estimated employment rate for people was a record high of 76.2%; this is 0.4 percentage points up on the year, but largely unchanged on the quarter
the estimated employment rate for men was 80.4%; this is 0.1 percentage points up on the year and on the quarter
the estimated employment rate for women was 72.0%; this is 0.8 percentage points up on the year, but 0.1 percentage points down on the quarter
The increase in the employment rate for women in recent years is partly a result of changes to the State Pension age for women, resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65 years.
Estimates for August to October 2019 show 32.80 million people aged 16 years and over in employment, 309,000 more than a year earlier. This annual increase was mainly driven by women (up 235,000 on the year) and full-time workers (up 272,000 on the year). There was a 24,000 increase in employment on the quarter. This was driven by a quarterly increase for men (up 54,000) and full-time employees (up 50,000 to a record high of 20.71 million), but partly offset by a 30,000 decrease for women and a 61,000 decrease for part-time employees.
Estimated unemployment rates for both men and women aged 16 years and over have been generally falling since late 2013 but have levelled off in recent periods (as seen in Figure 2).
For August to October 2019:
the estimated UK unemployment rate for all people was 3.8%, 0.3 percentage points lower than a year earlier but largely unchanged on the previous quarter
the estimated UK unemployment rate for men was 4.0%, 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier but largely unchanged on the previous quarter
the estimated UK unemployment rate for women was a record low of 3.5%, down 0.4 percentage points on the year and down 0.1 percentage points on the quarter
For August to October 2019, an estimated 1.28 million people were unemployed. This is 93,000 fewer than a year earlier and 673,000 fewer than five years earlier.
Vacancies and jobs
The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than a year earlier but little changed on the previous quarter; despite just reaching a new record high, the employment rate has been broadly flat over the last few quarters.
The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8%, 0.3 percentage points lower than a year earlier but largely unchanged on the previous quarter.
The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier but largely unchanged on the previous quarter.
Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain slowed to 3.2% for total pay (including bonuses) and 3.5% for regular pay (excluding bonuses); the annual growth in total pay was weakened by unusually high bonus payments paid in October 2018 compared with more typical average bonus payments paid in October 2019.
In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), annual growth in total pay is estimated to be 1.5%, and annual growth in regular pay is estimated to be 1.8%.
There were an estimated 794,000 vacancies in the UK for September to November 2019; 20,000 fewer than last quarter and 59,000 fewer than a year earlier.
The data in this bulletin come from surveys of households and businesses. It is not possible to survey every household and business each month, so these statistics are estimates based on samples.
Employment
May-Jul 2017
● People: 75.3
● Men: 79.7
● Women: 70.9
Employment measures the number of people aged 16 years and over in paid work. The employment rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are in paid work.
Estimated employment rates for men and women aged between 16 and 64 years have generally been increasing since early 2012 but have levelled off in recent periods (as seen in Figure 1). For August to October 2019:
the estimated employment rate for people was a record high of 76.2%; this is 0.4 percentage points up on the year, but largely unchanged on the quarter
the estimated employment rate for men was 80.4%; this is 0.1 percentage points up on the year and on the quarter
the estimated employment rate for women was 72.0%; this is 0.8 percentage points up on the year, but 0.1 percentage points down on the quarter
The increase in the employment rate for women in recent years is partly a result of changes to the State Pension age for women, resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65 years.
Estimates for August to October 2019 show 32.80 million people aged 16 years and over in employment, 309,000 more than a year earlier. This annual increase was mainly driven by women (up 235,000 on the year) and full-time workers (up 272,000 on the year). There was a 24,000 increase in employment on the quarter. This was driven by a quarterly increase for men (up 54,000) and full-time employees (up 50,000 to a record high of 20.71 million), but partly offset by a 30,000 decrease for women and a 61,000 decrease for part-time employees.
Unemployment
Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population who are unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who are unemployed.
Estimated unemployment rates for both men and women aged 16 years and over have been generally falling since late 2013 but have levelled off in recent periods (as seen in Figure 2).
For August to October 2019:
the estimated UK unemployment rate for all people was 3.8%, 0.3 percentage points lower than a year earlier but largely unchanged on the previous quarter
the estimated UK unemployment rate for men was 4.0%, 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier but largely unchanged on the previous quarter
the estimated UK unemployment rate for women was a record low of 3.5%, down 0.4 percentage points on the year and down 0.1 percentage points on the quarter
For August to October 2019, an estimated 1.28 million people were unemployed. This is 93,000 fewer than a year earlier and 673,000 fewer than five years earlier.
Economic inactivity
Overall inactivity rate for people aged between 16 and 64 years was 20.8%, down 0.2 percentage points on the year
UK economic inactivity rate (all people aged 16 to 64 years), seasonally adjusted, January to March 1971 to August to October 2019
Economic inactivity measures people without a job but who are not classed as unemployed because they have not been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work within the next two weeks. Our headline measure of economic inactivity is for those aged between 16 and 64 years.
Since comparable records began in 1971, the economic inactivity rate for all people aged between 16 and 64 years has been generally falling (although it increased during recessions). This is because of a gradual fall in the economic inactivity rate for women.
For people aged between 16 and 64 years, for August to October 2019:
the estimated economic inactivity rate for all people was 20.8%, down 0.2 percentage points on the year but largely unchanged on the quarter
the estimated economic inactivity rate for men was 16.2%, up 0.1 percentage points on the year but down 0.1 percentage points on the quarter
the estimated economic inactivity rate for women was 25.3%, down 0.5 percentage points on the year but up 0.2 percentage points on the quarter
Estimates for August to October 2019 show 8.61 million people aged between 16 and 64 years not in the labour force (economically inactive). This was 60,000 fewer than a year earlier and 447,000 fewer than five years earlier.
Earnings growth
The earnings estimates are not just a measure of pay rises, as they also reflect changes in the number of paid hours worked and changes in the structure of the workforce; for example, more high-paid jobs would have an upward effect on earnings growth rates.
The rate of pay growth has trended upwards since March to May 2017, reaching 3.9% in May to July 2019, the highest nominal pay growth rate since 2008. In August to October 2019, growth dropped to 3.2% for total pay and 3.5% for regular pay.
The growth in total pay is impacted downwards by unusually high bonuses having been paid in October 2018, whereas those in October 2019 are at more typical levels.
In real terms, annual pay growth has been positive since December 2017 to February 2018 and is now 1.5% for total pay and 1.8% for regular pay.
For October 2019, average regular pay, before tax and other deductions, for employees in Great Britain was estimated at £510 per week in nominal terms. The figure in real terms (constant 2015 prices) is £472 per week, which is still £1 (0.2%) lower than the pre-recession peak of £473 per week for April 2008.
The equivalent figures for total pay in real terms are £502 per week in October 2019 and £525 in February 2008, a 4.3% difference.
Vacancies
The estimated number of vacancies in the UK fell sharply during the recession of 2008 to 2009. Since 2012, it has generally increased, although it has been falling since early 2019. For September to November 2019, there were an estimated 794,000 vacancies in the UK, 20,000 fewer than for the previous quarter (June to August 2019) and 59,000 fewer than for the previous year.
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