Population Projections And An Introduction To Economic-demographic Foresight For Scotland's Sparsely Populated Areas 2018-43

10th November 2020

This item will point you to some research published in September 2020 a the Hutton Institute. The research is an ongoing project 2016 - 2021. The paper sets out the position for rural areas in Scotland. At the end of the paper you will find several useful links to information on populations from a range of sources.

Key messages

Updated population projections find that the population of sparsely populated areas of Scotland (more than 41% of the country by area) is projected to decline by 18.6% from 2018-43. The working age population of this region is projected to fall by 25.5% in the same period. However, the estimated demographic changes vary within the sparsely populated area.

Geographical differences in economic activity, and variation in commuter flows and regional economic linkages, could have considerable implications for population levels in sparsely populated Scotland. An economic-demographic foresight method, for enhancing population projections, is described. Updated population projections from economic-demographic foresight will be produced, using a 'baseline' economic scenario, to deliver place-based insights for different parts of sparsely populated Scotland.

In future, this model could be used to identify the effects of updated economic assumptions - potentially including the regional and nationwide effects of Covid19, Brexit and policy change - on sparsely populated areas.

Read the full paper HERE

Read earlier working papers in the research HERE

The James Hutton Institute web site