Who May Or May Not Switch Their Votes On Thursday 4 July

3rd July 2024

The results of a new Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel survey tracked the voting intentions of the same group of over 15,000 British adults between January and June.

Beneath the surface of the latest political polls, a new Ipsos survey on the Ipsos online random probability UK KnowledgePanel reveals a notable degree of voter volatility.

The survey, which tracked the voting intentions of the same group of over 15,000 British adults between January and June, found that while the overall percentage of the population who planned to vote for most parties remained relatively stable.

Underneath the surface 30% of the total voting age population had changed their vote intentions in some way by June, including those who became more or less undecided or more or less certain to vote.

Some of the main findings from the survey show:

Most party supporters from January continue to be loyal to their party, although this is slightly higher for Labour and Reform UK supporters than those who supported the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats.

Conservative switchers since January break into four roughly equal groups: those who are now supporting Reform UK, those who have switched to Labour or the Liberal Democrats (mainly to Labour), those who are now undecided but likely to vote, and those are now less certain or unlikely to vote (regardless of their party preference).
One in six (17%) of those currently intending to vote for Reform UK are former Conservative voters, driven by dissatisfaction with the government and the Prime Minister (although they are not favourable towards Keir Starmer either), and concerns about the economy, asylum, and immigration.

Just under half of those who are switching between Labour and the Liberal Democrats (in either direction) say they are doing so for tactical reasons.

Most of those who were uncertain or unlikely to vote in January have not moved out of this group. Of those who have become more motivated to vote for a party, more have moved to Labour (9% of those who were unlikely to vote in January), followed by moving to the Conservatives (5%), Reform UK (3%) and the Liberal Democrats (2%). Those of this group who moved to Labour expressed satisfaction with Keir Starmer's leadership and are slightly more likely to mention housing. Those who moved to the Conservatives were more content with the government's performance and optimistic about the economy.

A small number (4%) of Labour voters in January have now switched to the Green Party, citing dissatisfaction with Starmer's leadership and prioritising environmental and energy policies as well as policy on Israel/Palestine.

Many more details HERE