POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SCOTLAND'S COUNCIL AREAS

4th February 2010

Scotland's expected population increase is likely to be unevenly spread across the country, according to a report issued today by the Registrar General for Scotland.

Commenting on the report, the Registrar General Duncan Macniven said: "Over the next 25 years, we expect the population of Scotland to increase by about 7 per cent. But East Lothian is likely to grow almost five times as much, while we expect that the number of people in Inverclyde and East Dunbartonshire will fall by more than a tenth."

The report concentrates on the period between 2008 and 2033. Its main conclusions are that:

* the population of 19 of the 32 council areas in Scotland is projected to increase, while the population in the other 13 is projected to decrease. The council areas with the greatest projected increase in population are East Lothian (+33 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+27 per cent). Inverclyde (-18 per cent) and East Dunbartonshire (-13 per cent) have the largest projected decreases;

* every council area is projected to have more elderly people than today, though the scale of the increase will vary;

* the number of children aged 0-15 is projected to decrease in 20 of the 32 council areas, with the largest percentage decreases in Shetland (-33 per cent) and Inverclyde (-29 per cent). The biggest increases are projected in East Lothian (+38 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+24 per cent);

* the population of working age is projected to increase in 15 council areas and decrease in 17 - increasing the most in East Lothian (+29 per cent) and decreasing the most in Inverclyde (-26 per cent);

* the population of pensionable age is projected to increase in all council areas, the largest increases being projected in Aberdeenshire (+65 per cent) and West Lothian (+59 per cent), with the smallest increase in Dundee City (+8 per cent) and Glasgow City (+11 per cent);

* it is hard to predict how many people might migrate to Scotland. The high migration projection shows what would happen if Scotland were to gain larger numbers through migration than expected. The populations in 26 councils would rise under this variant. The greatest increase is again projected in East Lothian (+38 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+37 per cent) and the largest decrease again in Inverclyde (-14 per cent) and East Dunbartonshire (-11 per cent); and

* the low migration projection shows the population if Scotland were to gain smaller numbers through migration than expected. The populations in 15 councils are expected to rise under this variant. The greatest increase is again projected in East Lothian (+29 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+25 per cent) and the largest decrease again in Inverclyde (-20 per cent) and East Dunbartonshire (-17 per cent).

Background

1. This is a National Statistics publication. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

2. The Office for National Statistics (ONS), on behalf of the Registrar Scotland, prepares national projections for Scotland and the assumptions on which they are based. The 2008-based national population projections were announced in a news release issued by the Registrar General for Scotland on 21 October 2009 and the results can be found at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/publications-and-data/popproj/projected-population-of-scotland-2008-based/index.html. Projected populations for administrative areas of Scotland, consistent with the national projections, have been prepared by the Registrar General for Scotland and are the subject of this news release.

3. The latest projection is based on the Registrar General's mid-year population estimates for 2008 and replaces the previous 2006-based sub-national population projections. The projections are the result of assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration patterns based on past trends. Therefore the projections are not a prediction of what will happen, but simply a projection of what would be the outcome on the basis of particular assumptions. To view the full publication - Projected population of Scotland (2008-based) by council and NHS board area, 2008 to 2033 - visit: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/publications-and-data/popproj/2008-based-pop-proj-scottish-areas/index.html

4. The next set of national and sub-national projections, based on the 2010 population estimates, will be published in 2012.

5. Working age is 16-59 for women and 16-64 for men until 2010. Between 2010 and 2020, working age becomes 16-64 for women. Between 2024 and 2026, working age for both men and women becomes 16-65 and changes again to 16-67 by 2046.

6. Pensionable age is 65 for men and 60 for women until 2010. Between 2010 and 2020, pensionable age for women increases to 65. Between 2024 and 2026, pensionable age for both men and women increases to 66 and changes again to 68 by 2046.

The projections for the administrative areas of Scotland summarised in this booklet are also available by single year of age and sex for each year of the projection period, 2008 to 2033 from the detailed tables on the General Register Office for Scotland's website. They are also available from:

Customer Services
General Register Office for Scotland
Ladywell House
Ladywell Road
Edinburgh EH12 7TF

Tel: 0131 314 4243
E-mail: customer[AT]gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk