What Are The Public's Expectations Of The Budget?
30th October 2024
A new Ipsos poll reveals the British public's key concerns and expectations ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' first Budget announcement on October 30th.
A new Ipsos poll reveals the British public's key concerns and expectations ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' first Budget announcement on October 30th. The survey highlights a strong desire from the public to hear the government clearly set out their plans to fix public services and the economy.
The public's priorities
When asked what they want to hear about most in the upcoming budget, a large majority (84%) of Britons say it's important to hear about Labour's plans for improving public services, such as reducing NHS waiting times and increasing staff. Half (49%) say it’s very important to hear from the Chancellor on this.
This is even higher than interest in other topics, including Labour’s plans for economic growth, and the problems facing the economy and public services (all mentioned as important by around 8 in 10). Lower priorities for Britons to hear about include the financial "black hole" (69%), and the previous government's role in the current economic situation (46%).
However, there is a mismatch between what Britons most want to hear about, and what they actually have heard about since Labour took office. While there is a greater desire to hear about solutions rather than dwelling on past performance, only around half of people say they have heard at least a fair amount about Labour’s plans for improving public services (53%) or improving the economy (48%).
Instead, more people say that since July they have heard more negative stories about the problems facing Britain’s public services (75%) and economy (74%), the financial ‘black hole’ in the government budget (70%), or the role played by the previous Conservative government for the current state of the economy and public services (69%).
These gaps between relative levels of importance and awareness highlight a public appetite for more detailed information on Labour's proposed solutions.
Most Britons (54%) believe it should be possible to see noticeable improvements in the areas that matter most to them within two to three years, with 29% expecting changes within a year. However, only 16% think improvements actually will be seen within a year, and half anticipate it will take five years or more.
Tax proposals
When asked about various tax and spending proposals that could feature in the Budget:
Eliminating "non-dom" tax status receives the most backing, with 59% supporting requiring anyone residing in the UK to pay tax on all worldwide income (16% oppose).
Increasing capital gains tax is also more supported (45%) than opposed (24%).
In contrast, increasing taxes on pensions is deeply unpopular, opposed by 71%. Neither is there much support for increasing inheritance tax or fuel duty.
Four in ten (40%) say they would support requiring government departments and public services to reduce costs in their proposed spending plans (it is likely this reflects the public’s desire for fiscal responsibility and for public service reform to go along with increased investment in public services).
The public is split on reducing welfare spending, increasing employer NI, and changing the fiscal rules.
Commenting on the findings, Trinh Tu, Managing Director of Ipsos UK Public Affairs said:
The public is sending a clear message to the government ahead of the Budget: we know the problems, now give us solutions. Awareness of the challenges is high, but people are much less clear on Labour's plans to address them. It is not enough to simply point out the 'black hole' in the budget or criticise the previous government. To win over the public, Labour needs to put forward a positive, proactive vision focused on growing the economy and restoring public services. Diagnosing the problems isn't sufficient - people want to hear the treatment plan too.
For more on tis topic from Ipsos go to https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/what-are-publics-expectations-budget
