Long-term International Migration - 1.2 Million Arrive In Year To June 24
28th November 2024
Since 2021, long-term international migration to the UK has been at unprecedented levels. This has been driven by a variety of factors, including the war in Ukraine and the effects of the post-Brexit immigration system. Pent-up demand for study-related immigration because of travel restrictions during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic also had an impact.
Our latest estimates indicate a fall in long-term net migration (the difference between people coming to live in the UK and those leaving to live elsewhere). Our provisional estimates show a 20% reduction between our updated estimate for year ending (YE) June 2023 (906,000) and our latest estimate for YE June 2024 (728,000).
This fall is driven by a decline in long-term immigration mainly because of declining numbers of dependants arriving on study visas. Our most recent data points also show decreases in the number of people arriving for work-related reasons. This is consistent with visa data published by the Home Office, and in part reflects policy changes from earlier this year. It is also driven by a rise in long-term emigration, most notably for those who came to the UK on study-related visas. This is likely a consequence of the large number of students who came to the UK post-pandemic now reaching the end of their courses.
Long-term immigration
Our provisional estimate of long-term immigration for YE June 2024 is 1.2 million. This is down from our updated estimate of 1.3 million in YE June 2023.
Of the 1.2 million people who came to live in the UK in YE June 2024:
around 86% (1.0 million) were non-EU+ nationals
10% (116,000) were EU+ nationals (EU countries plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland)
5% (58,000) were British nationals
Focusing on the 1.0 million non-EU+ nationals:
82% (845,000) were of working age (16 to 64 years)
17% (179,000) were children (under 16 years)
Indian was the most common nationality for non-EU+ immigration for both work-related (116,000) and study-related (127,000) reasons in YE June 2024.
When looking at reason for migration of non-EU+ nationals, 295,000 (29% of non-EU+ nationals) came as study main applicants, similar to YE June 2023 (302,000). Meanwhile, 80,000 (8%) came as study dependants, down from 115,000 in YE June 2023. This follows changes to the student visa route implemented in January 2024, which restricted the ability of most international students to bring family members.
Around 184,000 (18%) non-EU+ nationals came as work main applicants, similar to YE June 2023 (189,000), but down from YE December 2023 (219,000). The number of work dependants who came to the UK in YE June 2024 (233,000, 23% of non-EU+ nationals) was higher than work main applicants. This is up from 166,000 in YE June 2023, but the most recent data points show early signs of a fall. Changes in work-related immigration rules that came into effect in March and April 2024 are likely to have had an impact on the latest figures. Home Office analysis on why people come to the UK also looks in more detail at reasons for falls.
Considering asylum applications, 8% of non-EU+ long-term migrants who arrived in the UK in YE June 2024 claimed asylum. This is 84,000 people and includes those who claimed asylum after arriving via a regular route and those who claimed after arriving irregularly, for example, via small boats.
Long-term emigration
Our provisional estimate of long-term emigration for YE June 2024 is 479,000. This is higher than our updated estimate of 414,000 in YE June 2023.
Of the 479,000 people who left the UK in YE June 2024:
around 44% (211,000) were EU+ nationals
39% (189,000) were non-EU+ nationals
16% (79,000) were British nationals
Non-EU+ emigration has been rising since 2022 and continues to do so. However, the most recent data points also show a rise in EU+ emigration.
The majority (60%) of the non-EU+ nationals who left the UK in YE June 2024 had originally arrived for study-related reasons. This is related to the large number of non-EU+ nationals who came to study from 2021 onwards who are now completing their courses and leaving. However, our international student research update also shows that this group are remaining in the UK longer before emigrating compared with those who arrived five years ago. This will, in part, be related to the introduction of the Graduate visa in 2021, which grants permission to stay in the UK for at least two years after successfully completing a course.
Updates to estimates
Our international migration statistics are official statistics in development. This means estimates may be updated as improvements are introduced. Our timely estimates for YE June 2024 and December 2023 are also provisional and will be updated as further and more recent data become available.
Like all statistics, these estimates also have associated statistical uncertainty, which is discussed in more detail in Section 10: Data sources and quality.
Estimates in this release have been updated back to YE June 2021. For example, net migration has been revised upwards by 166,000 for YE June 2023 and by 181,000 for YE December 2023. Reasons for these revisions include: more available data, more information on Ukraine visas and improvements to how we estimate migration of non-EU+ nationals. More information on these updates can be found in Section 6: Updates to estimates.
Estimates of the non-UK-born population
Data for long-term international migration, provisional
Glossary
Data sources and quality
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1.Overview
Since 2021, long-term international migration to the UK has been at unprecedented levels. This has been driven by a variety of factors, including the war in Ukraine and the effects of the post-Brexit immigration system. Pent-up demand for study-related immigration because of travel restrictions during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic also had an impact.
Our latest estimates indicate a fall in long-term net migration (the difference between people coming to live in the UK and those leaving to live elsewhere). Our provisional estimates show a 20% reduction between our updated estimate for year ending (YE) June 2023 (906,000) and our latest estimate for YE June 2024 (728,000).
This fall is driven by a decline in long-term immigration mainly because of declining numbers of dependants arriving on study visas. Our most recent data points also show decreases in the number of people arriving for work-related reasons. This is consistent with visa data published by the Home Office, and in part reflects policy changes from earlier this year. It is also driven by a rise in long-term emigration, most notably for those who came to the UK on study-related visas. This is likely a consequence of the large number of students who came to the UK post-pandemic now reaching the end of their courses.
Long-term immigration
Our provisional estimate of long-term immigration for YE June 2024 is 1.2 million. This is down from our updated estimate of 1.3 million in YE June 2023.
Of the 1.2 million people who came to live in the UK in YE June 2024:
around 86% (1.0 million) were non-EU+ nationals
10% (116,000) were EU+ nationals (EU countries plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland)
5% (58,000) were British nationals
Focusing on the 1.0 million non-EU+ nationals:
82% (845,000) were of working age (16 to 64 years)
17% (179,000) were children (under 16 years)
Indian was the most common nationality for non-EU+ immigration for both work-related (116,000) and study-related (127,000) reasons in YE June 2024.
When looking at reason for migration of non-EU+ nationals, 295,000 (29% of non-EU+ nationals) came as study main applicants, similar to YE June 2023 (302,000). Meanwhile, 80,000 (8%) came as study dependants, down from 115,000 in YE June 2023. This follows changes to the student visa route implemented in January 2024, which restricted the ability of most international students to bring family members.
Around 184,000 (18%) non-EU+ nationals came as work main applicants, similar to YE June 2023 (189,000), but down from YE December 2023 (219,000). The number of work dependants who came to the UK in YE June 2024 (233,000, 23% of non-EU+ nationals) was higher than work main applicants. This is up from 166,000 in YE June 2023, but the most recent data points show early signs of a fall. Changes in work-related immigration rules that came into effect in March and April 2024 are likely to have had an impact on the latest figures. Home Office analysis on why people come to the UK also looks in more detail at reasons for falls.
Considering asylum applications, 8% of non-EU+ long-term migrants who arrived in the UK in YE June 2024 claimed asylum. This is 84,000 people and includes those who claimed asylum after arriving via a regular route and those who claimed after arriving irregularly, for example, via small boats.
Long-term emigration
Our provisional estimate of long-term emigration for YE June 2024 is 479,000. This is higher than our updated estimate of 414,000 in YE June 2023.
Of the 479,000 people who left the UK in YE June 2024:
around 44% (211,000) were EU+ nationals
39% (189,000) were non-EU+ nationals
16% (79,000) were British nationals
Non-EU+ emigration has been rising since 2022 and continues to do so. However, the most recent data points also show a rise in EU+ emigration.
The majority (60%) of the non-EU+ nationals who left the UK in YE June 2024 had originally arrived for study-related reasons. This is related to the large number of non-EU+ nationals who came to study from 2021 onwards who are now completing their courses and leaving. However, our international student research update also shows that this group are remaining in the UK longer before emigrating compared with those who arrived five years ago. This will, in part, be related to the introduction of the Graduate visa in 2021, which grants permission to stay in the UK for at least two years after successfully completing a course.
Updates to estimates
Our international migration statistics are official statistics in development. This means estimates may be updated as improvements are introduced. Our timely estimates for YE June 2024 and December 2023 are also provisional and will be updated as further and more recent data become available.
Like all statistics, these estimates also have associated statistical uncertainty, which is discussed in more detail in Section 10: Data sources and quality.
Estimates in this release have been updated back to YE June 2021. For example, net migration has been revised upwards by 166,000 for YE June 2023 and by 181,000 for YE December 2023. Reasons for these revisions include: more available data, more information on Ukraine visas and improvements to how we estimate migration of non-EU+ nationals. More information on these updates can be found in Section 6: Updates to estimates.
Figure 1: There has been a fall in long-term net migration
Total long-term net migration, immigration and emigration in the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE June 2024
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Notes
Please see chart notes 1 to 4 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.
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2.Long-term immigration
When we talk about immigration in this bulletin we are referring to long-term immigration. Long-term immigration is when people change the country where they usually live for 12 months or more. This is the United Nations (UN) definition of a long-term migrant.
Immigration by EU+, non-EU+ and British nationality
Our provisional estimate for total immigration for year ending (YE) June 2024 is 1,207,000. This is lower than our updated estimate of 1,320,000 for YE June 2023.
For YE June 2024:
non-EU+ nationals accounted for around 86% of total immigration (1,034,000)
EU+ nationals made up 10% (116,000)
British nationals made up 5% (58,000)
Read the full ONS report HERE
