Ageing In The Fast And Slow Lane - Examining Geographic Gaps In Ageing

8th January 2025

Like most countries, the UK is ageing - over the past five decades its median age has risen from 34 to 41. This deep demographic trend has all sorts of implications for public policy, not least the need to find greater resources to provide care for a growing elderly population.

What is less well appreciated is that this ageing is playing out differently in different parts of the country - both in terms of places' age profile, but also in terms of the rate at which places are ageing. This report explores these trends and draws out some implications for local public services.

Key findings
There are large age gaps between the UK's oldest places (North Norfolk, with a median age of 55 in 2022) and its youngest places (Tower Hamlets, with a median age of 31 in 2022).
These gaps are growing, because many of the UK's oldest places are ageing rapidly, while many young areas are either getting younger or ageing less quickly than the UK overall. We refer to this pattern as ‘demographic divergence'.

The UK's fastest-ageing places over the past 20 years are all coastal or rural areas, and many are in Scotland. Of the 10 local authorities in Britain whose average age increased the most between 2001 and 2022, seven are in Scotland, including Argyll and Bute, Dumfries and Galloway, and the Scottish Borders, each of which saw their median age rise by 9 years.

One of the reasons cities tend to be younger than rural areas is they attract young migrants, either from within the UK or from abroad. Over the last 22 years, the average age of someone moving into a large city from elsewhere in the UK has been 26, which is 10 years lower than the average age in these cities. Places age profiles are also to some extent self-reinforcing, as fewer women of childbearing age in old places means fewer births. For example, the birth rate in villages in the UK stands at 9.5 per 1,000 people compared to 14.6 per 1,000 people in London.

Over the past decade or so London has experienced more ageing (its median age has rose by 2 years between 2011 and 2022) than other large UK cities (where the median age in 2022 was roughly unchanged on 2011). The different trend in London compared to other large cities is for two main reasons. First, London's birth rate fell: from 16 births per 1,000 people in the 2000s to 14 per 1,000 people in the 2010s (this was compared to a more muted fall across England and Wales as a whole). Second, the arrival of young international migrants became less concentrated in London post-Brexit.

These demographic shifts have important implications for local public services. One example is schools, where falling birth rates means fewer children to teach. This is particularly pronounced in London, where several areas have seen the 5-11 age population fall by 10 per cent or more. Because many neighbouring have seen similar falls there is little scope for local authorities with falling pupil numbers to take on those from adjacent areas. This is likely to lead to unused school capacity.

The other obvious implication is for adult social care in places with large elderly populations. As much as one-third of the population is over 65 in places like North Norfolk and Rother, with one-in-six aged 75 or over. State-funded social care is paid through local authority budgets, and there is a concern that local areas' resources don't fully match their need. We find that adult social care spending per elderly person is negatively correlated with the size of the local elderly population, implying areas facing the highest demand for social care services aren't able to fund those services at the same level as places with lower demand.

Author
Charlie McCurdy
Economist

Read the full Resolution Foundation report HERE
Pdf 26 Pages

Caithness and Sutherland
The population of Caithness and Sutherland has been declining, with some predicting severe population decline by 2040:
2011: The total population of Caithness and Sutherland was 39,732.
2018: The population of Caithness and Sutherland was 38,267, a 3.9% decrease from 2011.

The population of Caithness and Sutherland is older than the Highlands and Islands and Scotland. In 2011, 52.5% of the population was aged 45 and above, and 25.9% was aged 0-24.

Some local areas in Caithness and Sutherland have also seen population decline, including:

Wick: The population of Wick fell from 7,100 to 6,870 between 2003 and 2020.

Thurso and Scrabster: The population of Thurso and Scrabster fell from 7,680 to 7,390 between 2003 and 2020.

BBC 10 December 2023
Warning parts of Highlands being drained of people
They warned there could be severe declines in the populations of Caithness and neighbouring Sutherland by 2040.

Highland Council 13 December 2023
Population trends for the Highland area show an on-going pattern of increase in the urban areas around the Inner Moray Firth, as well as a drift of people away from the western Highlands, Sutherland and Caithness areas.

Results from Scotland's Census 2022 (external link) were released on 14 September 2023, which show a 5.2% increase in over 65's in Highland over the past 10 years. While an ageing population is a national trend, Highland’s increase compares with a 3.3% increase across Scotland.

Between 2001 and 2021, the 0 to 15 age group in Highland saw a decrease of -6.7%, while the 75+ age group saw an increase of +60.6%.

The impact of the changing demographics is felt on a number of services with challenges in meeting the care and housing needs of communities across Highland.

Our ageing population creates pressures on the adult social care services and there is a lack of available housing supply, including housing suitable to meet the needs of an ageing population, which creates challenges in sustaining and growing populations in rural areas.

Chair of the Health and Social Care Committee, David Fraser said: "Delivering Social Care Services in the Highlands and Islands is particularly challenging at the current time, with care home sustainability, workforce challenges and delivering person centred care at home.

"In Highland there is a clear need to shift the balance of care from residential provision and enabling people to stay within their communities."
Warning parts of Highlands being 'drained' of people