Ukraine enters a perilous phase of fighting and talking with no assured end in sight

13th March 2025

Ukraine has agreed to a ceasefire in principle. But conflicts often intensify when a pause in fighting is being negotiated.

Ukraine made substantial progress in repairing its ties with the United States in talks this week hosted by Saudi Arabia in Jedda, with the US agreeing to restore its intelligence sharing and security assistance to Ukraine. (President Donald Trump had paused US assistance after his fraught Oval Office meeting with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 28 February).

Now, according to a US-Ukraine joint statement following the Jeddah talks, Ukraine has agreed in principle to an interim 30-day ceasefire - subject to ‘acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation'.

The question is, will the US, having pressured Ukraine to agree to this ceasefire proposal, now pressure Russia to reciprocate? The outlook here is uncertain and Russia's incentives are mixed: in recent days it has recaptured territory in its Kursk region (occupied by Ukrainian forces since last August) and continued its slow advance in the Donbas region. Moscow may feel this is no time for a ceasefire. Equally, Russia may demand sanctions relief from the US to agree in principle to a halt in fighting - a promise it could later break.

Something commonly seen when fighting and talking occurred concurrently in other wars is an intensification of fighting, often by both sides. The intention is to display their strength and improve their battlefield positions before making concessions along existing frontlines.

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