
18th July 2025
The Scottish Housing Market Review collates a range of previously published statistics on the latest trends in the Scottish housing market.
Sales
Registers of Scotland data recorded the fourth consecutive quarter of annual growth in residential transactions in Q1 2015 (7.0%), which meant that across financial year 2024-25 transactions grew by 7.1%.
Revenue Scotland data shows similar growth in Q1 2025, with residential Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) returns up by an annual 7.0%. However, more recent data shows that LBTT returns for April to May 2025 were slightly down (-0.4%) on an annual basis, providing tentative evidence that the increase in sales may be flattening off.
House Prices
Average house prices in Scotland, as measured by the UK House Price Index (HPI), increased annually by 4.9% in Q1 2025. This is the highest growth rate since Q4 2022 and the fifth consecutive quarter where annual house price growth has been positive.
Residential LBTT
Growth in transactions and house prices across 2024-25 resulted in a provisional estimate of £484.7m for residential LBTT revenue excluding the Additional Dwelling Supplement, which was an increase of 14.8% on 2023-24 and 4.1% on 2022-23.
Private Rental Sector
Letting agent data indicates that there has been a significant decline in new-let private rental growth: for example, the annual growth rate in the Citylets Rental Index has fallen from a peak of 13.7% in Q3 2023 to 4.4% in Q1 2025.
Mortgage Lending
The number of mortgages advanced to first-time buyers in Scotland rose annually by 17.0% in 2024-25, while for homes movers the increase was 15.0%. [UK Finance].
The mean Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio for first-time buyers in Scotland was 82.4% in Q1 2025, not far off its recent peak of 83.4% in Q2 2022. The mean ratio for home movers increased over the quarter from 69.3% to 69.6% but is 3.1 percentage points below its recent peak of 72.7% in Q2 2022. [UK Finance]
The total number of residential mortgage products fell over the month from the recent peak reached in May 2025 (6,993) to 6,843 in June 2025, although this remains higher than in June 2024 (6,629). In contrast, the number of buy-to-let (BTL) products increased on the month to reach 4,144 which is the highest level in the data series. [Source: Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report]
Reflecting the cumulative 1% point cut to Bank Rate beginning in August 2024, the average interest rate for new floating-rate mortgage advances in May 2025 was 5.01% across the UK, 1% point lower than a year earlier, while for new fixed-rate mortgages the average rate was 4.43%, down 0.29% points over the year. However, the average interest rate on outstanding fixed-rate mortgages continues to trend up, by 0.47% points over the year to 3.66%, as longer-duration fixes reach their end of term and are refinanced at higher rates. [Bank of England].
The 10,938 regulated mortgage accounts entering arrears across the UK was significantly below the post-Covid peak of 15,706 in Q3 2023. [FCA]. The number of BTL mortgages in arrears of 1.5% or more of the outstanding balance across the UK recorded its fifth consecutive quarter-on-quarter fall in Q1 2025 and is now 19% below its level in Q4 2023. [UK Finance]
The improving trend in arrears has not yet translated into falling possessions: in the UK there were 1,151 new possessions of regulated mortgages in Q1 2025 which represented a 15% quarterly and 34% annual increase, although possessions remain below pre-Covid levels. [FCA] BTL possessions in Q1 2025 recorded a 16% quarterly and 29% annual increase, and they remain above pre-Covid levels. [UK Finance]
Housing Supply
In 2024-25, there were 19,288 all-sector new-build completions in Scotland, a 4% fall on 2023-24; meanwhile, there were 15,053 starts, down by 11%. [Scottish Government]
In 2024-25, Affordable Housing Supply Programme (AHSP) completions fell by 22% from 2023-24 to stand at 7,444, as did approvals (down 31% to 4,775) and starts (down 21% to 5,424). [Scottish Government]
Input and Output Prices for New Housing
The ONS has temporarily suspended the publication of construction output price and construction material price indices as part of their review into the methodology of producer price indices.
ONS average weekly earnings data for GB show that annual growth in total pay in the construction sector has accelerated in recent months, from 1.9% in the three months to May 2024 to 7.5% in the three months to April 2025.
For more details go to the full report at
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-housing-market-review-q2-2025/