New Labour Market Data And Other Economic Indicators...

22nd April 2020

Fraser of Allander Institute - April 21, 2020.

Today we've received new labour market statistics from the ONS. It is important to note at the outset that these relate to the period before the UK economy went in to lockdown.

This means that the data today tell us little, if anything, about how the economy is doing right now. But they do tell us about the health of the labour market going in to this pandemic.

In this article, we do three things: examine what the labour market data released today tells us, set out what other data are available that shed light on or scenario for the path of the economy at the moment, and set out the key timings for future data releases on the economy.



Today's data

First, the headline numbers show that the Scottish unemployment rate was 3.7% in the three months to the end of February (compared to the UK which was 4%), this is down -0.1%-points on the previous 3 months.

Meanwhile the employment rate was 75.4% (compared to 76.6% in the UK as a whole), which is up +1.1%-points on the previous 3 months.

The economic activity rate was 21.6% (compared to 20.2% for the UK as a whole), this is -1.0%-points on the previous 3 months.

None of these statistics relate to the period after the economy went in to ‘lockdown', they tell us only about the condition of the labour market heading in to the current crisis.

Some ‘experimental’ statistics (i.e. not designated as National Statistics) on Job Seekers Allowance and some elements of Universal Credit cover the period up to 12th March, these again relate to the period before the economy went in to lockdown.

For this reason these show little change, with 112,000 people in Scotland shown as being in receipt of this support which is basically unchanged from the month before.

Read the full article HERE