BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor March 2020

22nd April 2020

Covering the five weeks 1 March - 4 April 2020

On a total basis, sales decreased by 4.3 percent in March, against a decrease of 1.8 percent in March 2019*. This is the worst decline recorded since our monitor began in January 1995, excluding distortions. It is below the 3-month and 12-month average declines of 1.4 percent and 0.6 percent respectively.

Sales before and after the lockdown (23rd March) contrasted sharply. In the first three weeks of March, retail sales grew 12 percent on a Total basis but declined 27 percent in the last two weeks of the period.

In March, UK retail sales decreased 3.5 percent on a Like-for-like basis from March 2019, when they had decreased 3.5 percent from the preceding year*.

Over the three months to March, In-store sales of Non-Food items declined 13.0 percent on a Total and Like-for-like basis. This is worse than the 12-month Total average decline of 6.1 percent and comes as a result of the closure of "non-essential" stores.

Over the three months to March, Food sales increased 4.9 percent on a Like-for-like basis and 5.1 percent on a Total basis. This is higher than the 12-month Total average growth of 2.4 percent.

Over the three-months to March, Non-Food retail sales decreased by 6.7 percent on a like-for-like and 6.6 percent on a Total basis.

This is below the 12-month Total average decline of 3.0 percent. For the month of March, Non-Food was in decline year-on-year.

Online Non-Food sales increased by 18.8 percent in March, against a growth of 2.5 percent in March 2019*. This is above the 12-month average growth of 4.4 percent.

Non-Food Online penetration rate increased from 29.3 percent in March 2019 to 43.5 percent this March.

* Note 2020 is a 53-week year in the ONS calendar: as a result of the extra week in January 2020, the comparable 2019 performances cited here may differ from those published last year, due to the one-week shift in the comparison.

Paul Martin, UK Head of Retail | KPMG

“Retail sales experienced an historic drop in March, with COVID-19 changing the consumer landscape significantly. Lock down has prompted a fundamental rethink of what is deemed essential. Total sales may ‘only' be down 4.3 percent, but the sharp divide between food and non-food, and between physical and online, is far more drastic. Also, the UK’s closure of non-essential stores only started at the backend of the month, so it’s likely worse data is yet to emerge.

“Staying home has seen a surge in sales of food and drink; computing equipment, toys to keep children entertained, and unsurprisingly health-related goods too. Yet our high streets are completely void of footfall, and non-food categories like fashion have been forced into hibernation. With little alternative for non-essential retail on offer, online penetration has soared to 43.5 percent.

“Non-essential retailers have had to immediately address cash preservation and liquidity, furlough parts of their workforce and understand how to access various government support schemes. Meanwhile, essential retailers have focussed on stabilising their supply chain and product availability, whilst focussing on the safety and welfare of their employees and customers.

“An uncertain future lies ahead and the industry’s reset button has clearly been pressed. Smart retailers will already be thinking about what this means for the future, but the resilience of the sector cannot be underestimated. Likewise, we cannot overlook the huge contribution many retail workers have made to help the nation during the crisis.”

Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive | British Retail Consortium

“In March, the necessary measures to fight the spread of coronavirus led to the worst decline in retail sales on record. Furthermore, the headline figure masked even more dramatic swings: food and essentials faced an unprecedented surge in demand in the early part of March, only to drop significantly into negative growth after the lockdown and introduction of social distancing in stores. The closure of non-essential shops led to deserted high streets and high double-digit declines in sales which even a rise in online shopping could not compensate for. Sales of computers and accessories, board games, and fitness equipment all rose sharply as a result of the move to home-schooling and work-from-home. In contrast, demand for the latest fashion ranges significantly declined.”

“The crisis continues; the retail industry is at the epicentre and the tremors will be felt for a long while yet. Many physical non-food retailers have been forced to shut down entirely or to limit themselves to online only to protect customers and staff. Consequently, hundreds of thousands of jobs at are risk within these companies and their supply chains. At the same time, supermarkets brace themselves for lower sales, while still spending huge sums on protective measures, donating to food banks and hiring tens of thousands of temporary staff. We welcome the Government’s actions to date, yet millions of livelihoods rely on their continued support.”

Note: Retail Sales Monitor first recorded in 1995

Food & Drink sector performance | Susan Barratt, CEO | IGD

“UK grocery retailers faced an unprecedented series of challenges in March, and along with suppliers and logistics partners, have been critical to the national response during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, ensuring people have access to food and other essentials as well as supporting vulnerable groups in our society. Shoppers are recognising and appreciating these efforts, with trust in the food industry to support local communities up by 4 percent from February.

“As well as tackling the immediate challenges of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) impacts, retailers need to have an eye on the future. Our data shows a significant decline in shopper financial confidence, with 39 percent expecting to be worse off in the year ahead compared to 27 percent in February, indicating the rest of 2020 may be a bumpy ride for many.”