Third Quarter Growth In 2020 But Falls Far Behind 2019

16th December 2020

A National Statistics Publication for Scotland.

The Chief Statistician has released statistics showing that the economy grew by 16.0% during the third quarter of 2020, covering the period July to September.

Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. Over the year, compared to the third quarter of 2019, the economy has contracted by 9.5%.

During the third quarter output in the Construction sector grew by 52.0%, output in Production contracted by 18.6%, and output in the Services sector contracted by 13.8%.

The second estimate of GDP for the third quarter of 2020 will be available in Quarterly National Accounts Scotland, published on 3 February 2021. The first estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020 will be published on 24 March 2021.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Office For National Statistics - A similar picture for the whole of UK.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by a record 15.5% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2020, as lockdown measures were eased.

Though this reflects some recovery of activity following the record contraction in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020, the level of GDP in the UK is still 9.7% below where it was at the end of 2019.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the UK economy fell by 9.6%.

While output in the services, production and construction sectors increased by record amounts in Quarter 3 2020, the level of output remains below Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) levels, before the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic was seen.

The levels of expenditure remain considerably below their levels before the effects of the coronavirus, as the pickup in business investment has been much weaker than private consumption.

Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2020. This is the largest quarterly expansion in the UK economy since Office for National Statistics (ONS) quarterly records began in 1955. However, it is worth noting that this reflects the continued easing of lockdown restrictions in the third quarter as well as some recovery of activity from the steep contraction in April (Figure 1).

The level of GDP in the UK is still 9.7% below where it was prior to the pandemic at the end of 2019. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the UK economy fell by 9.6%.

The monthly path of GDP in Quarter 3 2020 reveals that there has been a slowdown of growth in August and September as momentum has eased through the quarter. GDP increased by 6.3% in July, driven by accommodation and food services as lockdown restrictions were eased.

Housebuilding activity also increased in July, while the reopening of car showrooms combined with pent-up demand boosted wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles. GDP grew by 2.2% in August, driven by accommodation and food services because of the combined impact of easing lockdown restrictions and the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme, as well as growth in the accommodation industry as international travel restrictions boosted domestic "staycations".

In September, GDP further slowed to 1.1% where professional, scientific and technical activities had the largest contribution and legal activities, accounting and advertising saw strong growth after a muted August. Education also had a large positive contribution in September as schools made further advances in returning to a level of teaching similar to before the lockdown started on 23 March 2020, primarily through increased attendance.