The government will regret relaxing the Covid rules over Christmas

19th December 2020

An article from the Institute for Government - Author - Alex Thomas.

Being prime minister involves taking the hardest decisions. However tempted Boris Johnson is to fudge Christmas Covid restrictions, this is a judgement call he cannot duck, says Alex Thomas.

Ending up as the man who cancelled Christmas is the stuff of political nightmares. But when doctors and major medical journals are telling the prime minister that his relaxation of household mixing restrictions could cause thousands of otherwise avoidable deaths in the new year, Boris Johnson might decide that the alternative is worse.

The government cannot have it both ways on Christmas restrictions

The prime minister and his cabinet will be considering whether there is a middle way, and we have already heard ministers change their language to urge people to be far more careful. Expect the warnings to get starker over the coming days.

However, that does not change the binary decision about whether people should mix households or not. In this case, the cliche is true: to govern is to choose. If the doctors are right, Johnson will either be the prime minister who ruined Christmas or the one who caused unnecessary deaths.

It is in everybody's interest for the government to make the best decisions during the pandemic. Our research about decision making at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis shows that the prime minister needs to be clear about his overall strategy before deciding on specific objectives, and to do more to plan ahead and anticipate the next stage of the pandemic. Both have been lacking through preparations for Christmas.

The prime minister’s decision is made harder by his failure to anticipate the risk of household mixing

Given that it must be the government’s overriding aim to reduce the loss of life from the virus, particularly with a vaccine on the way, it would be a logical and entirely understandable position for the government to say that restrictions should not be relaxed.

But the government’s strategy has lacked that clarity. Ministers have been worried that families would break the rules regardless, and concluded that some relaxation was simply a recognition of reality. That is an abdication of responsibility. The government sets the restrictions and then ministers need to set out to people why they are necessary. Scientific and medical advisers can help, but the first phase of the pandemic showed that "following the science" is not enough - ministers must explain and persuade.

Christmas planning also seems to have suffered from a failure of anticipation. The easing of restrictions was announced just as the second lockdown was lifted, and when Conservative backbenchers were getting restive. It seems that ministers were at that time too optimistic about the lockdown’s effectiveness.

That optimism was understandable, but we are now just seven days away from the Christmas bubble coming in, and the data has been looking bad for some time. By now options have closed down for the prime minister. Had he acted sooner he could have required a period of self-isolation for those planning to travel to meet relatives over Christmas, but it seems too late for that now.

Fudging decisions in the short term makes them harder in the end

Throughout this crisis the government has seemed unwilling to face up to the – admittedly painful – decisions needed and been slow to settle on its course of action, including on both periods of lockdown.

The way it has imposed, then hedged and tried to fudge its plans around Christmas are another example. Introducing a five-day festive period where ministers ask the public to take personal responsibility, after having followed nine months of detailed restrictions, is incoherent; many people will assume that if something is permitted then it is safe. This confused strategy makes for contradictory and unpersuasive communications.

Now people’s festive plans have been made and public expectations have been set. To change their behaviour now would require a major prime ministerial intervention and no doubt some visible self-sacrifice from those at the top of the government. It would be deeply disappointing for millions who are hoping to see their families next week and will cause trouble in the prime minister’s parliamentary party. But Boris Johnson may decide it is worth that sacrifice to save lives in January and February.

The government's policy over Christmas is an admission that they can no longer govern, because they have no mechanism to enforce a law amounting to lockdown of households over Christmas.

During World War Two the government didn't relax blackout restrictions at Christmas, nor did they stand the Air Raid Wardens down. The failure of this government to govern will probably lead to more deaths than any blackout holiday would have caused then.