Impact Analysis On Covid-19 Decision-making On School Opening

18th February 2021

This report by the Legatum Institute on 18th February 2021 shows the huge difficulties and dilemmas facing politicians in all parts of the UK in deciding when to allow schools to open again.

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A new report by the Legatum Institute provides a holistic analysis of the costs and benefits associated with re-opening schools in England at various points between now and the autumn.

The report builds on the proof-of-concept tool developed by the Institute in December 2020 and allows decision makers to understand:

Direct health effects associated with rising transmission of the virus as a result of schools re-opening.

Indirect health effects associated with changes in health service and care system provision, and behaviour and health impacts that are related to these impacts but are not caused by the virus itself.

Long-term economic effects associated with learning loss resulting from school closures.

Short-term economic effects associated with parents taking on more childcare responsibilities as a result of school closures.

Wellbeing impacts on children associated with school closures.

Based on this understanding of the costs and benefits and using of the concept of Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) to assess health, social and economic costs on a consistent basis, the report demonstrates how decision makers can make an evidence-based assessment of the net social costs or benefits of opening schools on different dates.

The report also provides a sensitivity analysis to show how different assumptions about the underlying transmission rate (R) in society in the absence of any policy changes and the impact on R leading from schools re-opening affect the results.

The report finds that:

Primary schools returning on 8th March would create a net benefit to society.

Secondary schools returning 8th March alongside primary schools would also give a net benefit to society.

Primary schools returning on 22nd February would have been a net benefit only if the impact of opening schools on R is towards the low end of expected ranges.

Baroness Philippa Stroud, CEO of Legatum Institute, said:"Covid-19 has fundamentally impacted all of us - affecting our health, our relationships, and our livelihoods. Policy makers are now faced with an unenviable task of making choices on how to unwind restrictions in a way that balances significant health, economic, and social costs and benefits.

"To date, this has largely taken place without much publicly available information on the basis of and evidence for these decisions. But this report, and our original proof-of-concept tool, shows that does not need to be the case. Our research demonstrates that this difficult subject can be approached in an objective and structured fashion, so that decision makers can fully understand the complex issues at hand and the various costs and benefits of different courses of action.

“We believe that by using and building on this approach and the evidence it provides, the UK Government and others stand a greater chance of making decisions that deliver the best overall outcomes for individuals, families, and communities across the UK. Our approach also provides a way for policymakers and politicians to communicate the evidence behind, and build public trust in, the choices being made."

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An assessment of the impacts of the virus in the context of the decision on re-opening schools as lockdown restrictions are loosened.

The human consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on individuals, families and communities right across the UK is clear to see. The impacts go beyond the here and now; with significant long-term health impacts predicted and lost schooling having the potential to impact livelihoods, productivity, and life chances well into the future.

Download the full report HERE

This report considers these impacts in the context of the decision on when to re-open schools in England as restrictions of the third national lockdown are loosened. It is based on the framework for understanding the range of costs associated with the pandemic and Government responses that we published in December 2020, available here. - https://li.com/reports/developing-an-evaluation-tool-for-covid-19-policy-choices/

The starting point is that there are significant costs associated with the closure of schools. Since 5th January 2021, schooling has taken place remotely for the vast majority of children, but remote learning cannot replace the quality of in-person schooling, has a negative impact on children's wellbeing, and negatively affects parents' ability to work.

As the impact of the third national lockdown and vaccine rollout starts to be seen in Covid infection and mortality rates, the Government faces the decision on when to re-open primary and secondary schools. This involves a difficult balancing act between the immediate and long-term impacts of lost schooling on children, their families, and the country, and the health, economic, and social impacts that a potential rise in infections caused by re-opening schools would have.

We hope that this briefing will increase understanding of the breadth of impacts, how they interact with each other, and the assumptions and trade-offs that are presented by different policy choices. We hope it will also provide a way for policymakers and politicians to communicate the evidence behind the choices being made, to increase the transparency of the decision-making process, build trust, and increase the likelihood of achieving the best overall outcomes for individuals, families, and communities right across the UK.

Download the full report HERE