COVID-19: what are the lessons?

3rd November 2021

A article by Anthony Seaton published in the Scottish Review sets out clearly how we got to where we are with Covid19.

The early warnings
In early January 2020, we first learnt of the arrival of a new virus in Wuhan. It was a relative of the highly fatal SARS virus that has caused epidemic pneumonia in the Far East. At first there was discussion as to how infectious this new one might be, but this was quickly resolved when person to person cases were reported, and we saw the desperate measures being taken by the Chinese authorities. Unfortunately, Chinese New Year and the associated travel had already allowed it to escape from Wuhan and cases were being reported more widely in East Asia and on a cruise liner. However, SARS had been controlled and it still seemed far away and on 24 January we were advised by the English Chief Medical Officer that risks to us were low. One week later, the first two cases of the new viral infection were reported in England.

In early February, we were advised to wash our hands but that there was no need to avoid crowded places. On 21 February, a careful Chinese study showed that this virus, now called SARS-CoV-2, was transmissible by asymptomatic people. I said to my wife: 'This is the big one'. The one we had all feared and that would be extremely difficult to control. A friend and I decided to watch the Scotland rugby international on TV rather than use the tickets he had bought.

On 23 February, the UK Government's Scientific Advisory Committee for Emergencies (SAGE) advised that school closures and social distancing could reduce infections by at least 50%. By then, my wife and I had decided on self-isolation, knowing the mortality risk in our age group to be 20%. That week, I submitted my first Covid article to Scottish Review advising readers to take the same approach (4 March 2020). By 20 March, 177 deaths had been reported in UK and on 23 March 23, the government announced a national lockdown. Despite three notorious episodes of breach of these instructions by people responsible for them in both England and Scotland, the public response was extremely compliant.

Read the full article HERE