State Of The Epidemic In Scotland - 5 November 2021

6th November 2021

This report summarises the current situation on the Covid-19 epidemic in Scotland. It brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the epidemic in Scotland at this point in time, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next. This summarises the data up to and including 4 November 2021 on Covid-19 in Scotland. This updates the previous publication published on 29 October1. The information in this document helps the Scottish Government, the health service and the wider public sector respond to the epidemic and put in place what is
needed to keep us safe and treat people who have the virus.

This edition of the State of the Epidemic summarises current data on Covid-19 at a national and local level, and how Scotland currently compares to the rest of the UK. It looks at the vaccination program in Scotland and its impact. Information is provided about variants of concern and what impact these may have. Bringing this information together in one place gives the opportunity to better understand the current state of the epidemic in Scotland.

Please note that PCR testing might have been affected by half-term
holidays throughout October. Testing and case numbers during the
period 28-31 October 2021 may have been affected by a data flow issue at the Glasgow lighthouse laboratory, this was cleared on the 31 October. The backlog of NHS Scotland Pillar 1 lab test results that Public Health Scotland were unable to report on 2 November due to an issue affecting data flow on the afternoon of 1 November, were included in newly reported figures on 3 November.

Key Points
• The reproduction rate R in Scotland, as of 19 October, is estimated
as being between 0.9 and 1.1. Both the lower and upper limits have
increased since last week.

• An average of 2,786 cases were reported per day in the 7 days to
4 November. This compares to the daily average of 2,436 recorded
on 28 October (week on week comparison may be affected by data
flow issue).

• There were 324 weekly cases per 100,000 in the week to 1 November (by specimen date). This is lower than the most recent peak (825 weekly cases per 100,000 on 6 September) and lower than the peak in July (425 weekly cases per 100,000 recorded on 3 July). 7 day case rates have remained relatively stable in recent weeks.

• Case rates have decreased for those aged 60-79 and 80+ and have increased slightly or plateaued for other age bands in the week to 1 November. As of 1 November, the highest case rates were observed amongst those aged under 20, followed by 40-59, 20-39, 60-79 and 80+.

• As determined through the latest weekly ONS survey, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in the private residential population is uncertain in the most recent week in Scotland (24 to 30 October 2021).

• Latest modelled estimates suggest that as of 19 October there were between 63 and 96 new daily infections per 100,000 people in
Scotland.

• There were 133 deaths registered in Scotland where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate in the week ending 31 October.

• Average hospital admissions (3-week rolling average) related to
Covid-19 in children have decreased in all age groups, except for
0-1 year olds, compared to the previous three-week period.

• Clackmannanshire currently has the highest weekly case rate in
Scotland reporting 587 weekly cases per 100,000 in the week to 1
November 2021, followed by Na h-Eileanan Siar with 483 weekly
cases per 100,000, Orkney with 473 weekly cases per 100,000, and
East Ayrshire with 470 weekly cases per 100,000 population. All local authorities reported over 200 weekly cases per 100,000 population in the last week, except for Shetland. Shetland reported the lowest case rate with 184 weekly cases per 100,000 in the same period.

• Nationwide, Covid-19 levels in wastewater have shown an increase since last week (20th to 26th October), increasing by approximately 20%.
• Hospital occupancy has been fluctuating over the past weeks. ICU
occupancy appears to have plateaued. There continues to be
uncertainty over hospital occupancy and intensive care in the next
three weeks.

• Over 4.3 million people in Scotland have been given a first vaccine
against SARS-CoV-2, over 3.9 million have received a second dose,
and over 800,000 people have received a booster or dose 3 by 4
November.
• The Delta variant remains the dominant strain in Scotland.
Prevalence rates of AY.4.2 (Delta+) have increased in recent weeks
in both Scotland and England. Clinical implications of Delta+ are still
to be determined.

Read the full report HERE