Labour Market Trends In Scotland November 2021

16th November 2021

The latest National Statistics Report on Labour trends in Scotland.

Labour Force Survey estimates are presented for the 3 months to September 2021, compared with the quarter before (April to June 2021) and pre-pandemic (December 2019 to February 2020). Please note percentage point changes are based on unrounded data.

Furloughed employees - Employees who are furloughed will be classed as employed but temporarily away from work in the Labour Force Survey and also included in payrolled employee estimates from HMRC (see page 21 for further details).

 The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates for July to September 2021 indicate that over the quarter, the unemployment rate decreased, while the employment rate increased and economic inactivity rate decreased.

 The estimated unemployment rate (16+) in Scotland was 4.1 per cent, up 0.3 percentage points since December 2019-February 2020 (pre-pandemic) but down 0.2 percentage points over the quarter. Scotland's unemployment rate was below the UK rate of 4.3 per cent.

 The estimated employment rate (the proportion of people aged 16-64 in work) in Scotland was 74.8 per cent, down 0.6 percentage points since December 2019-February 2020 (pre-pandemic) but up 0.6 percentage points over the quarter. Scotland's employment rate was below the UK rate of 75.4 per cent.

 The estimated economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 years who were not working and not seeking or available to work) in Scotland was 22.0 per cent, up 0.3 percentage points since December 2019-February 2020 (pre-pandemic) but down 0.4 percentage points over the quarter. Scotland's economic inactivity rate was above the UK rate of 21.1 per cent.

 Early estimates for October 2021 from HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information indicate that there were 2.39 million payrolled employees in Scotland, an increase of 0.1 per cent (2,000) compared with February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This compares with the UK where the number of payrolled employees has increased by 0.8 per cent over the same period.

 The experimental Claimant Count includes Jobseeker's Allowance Claimants and those claimants of Universal Credit who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed. In October 2021, there were 157,100 claimants in Scotland, a decrease of 2,100 (-1.3 per cent) over the month but an increase of 44,000 (38.9 per cent) since March 2020 (prepandemic). The claimant count rate in October 2021 was 4.9 per cent, compared with 5.1 per cent for the UK as a whole.

 Early estimates for October 2021 from HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information indicate that median monthly pay for payrolled employees in Scotland was £2,025, an increase of 8.2 per cent compared with February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This is higher than the growth in median monthly pay for the UK over the same period (7.9 per cent).

Unemployment estimates
The estimated unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over in Scotland was 4.1 per cent in July to September 2021. This is 0.3 percentage points up on December 2019-February 2020 (pre-pandemic) but 0.2 percentage points down over the quarter.
The estimated UK unemployment rate was 4.3 per cent in July to September 2021. This is 0.3 percentage points up on December 2019-February 2020 (pre-pandemic) but 0.5 percentage points down on the quarter.

Compared with the UK countries, Scotland's unemployment rate was the 2nd highest. The estimated unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over in Scotland was 0.6 percentage points lower than the year before (July to September 2020), while the
estimated UK unemployment rate was also 0.6 percentage points lower than the year before.

Employment estimates
The estimated employment rate for people aged 16-64 years in Scotland was 74.8 per cent in July to September 2021. This is 0.6 percentage points down on December 2019-February 2020 (pre-pandemic) but 0.6 percentage points up over the quarter.
The estimated UK employment rate was 75.4 per cent in July to September 2021. This is 1.1 percentage points down on December 2019-February 2020 (pre-pandemic) but 0.4 percentage points up on the quarter.

Compared with the UK countries, Scotland's employment rate was the 2nd highest. The estimated employment rate for people aged 16-64 years in Scotland was 0.7 percentage points higher than the year before (July to September 2020), while the estimated UK employment rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than the year before.

Economic Inactivity estimates
The estimated economic inactivity rate for people aged 16-64 years in Scotland was 22.0 per cent in July to September 2021. This is 0.3 percentage points up on December 2019-February 2020 (pre-pandemic) but 0.4 percentage points down over the quarter.
The estimated UK economic inactivity rate was 21.1 per cent in July to September 2021. This is 0.9 percentage points up on December 2019-February 2020 (pre-pandemic) and no change on the quarter.

Compared with the UK countries, Scotland's economic inactivity rate was the 2nd lowest. The estimated economic inactivity rate for people aged 16-64 years in Scotland was 0.2 percentage points lower than the year before (July to September 2020), while the
estimated UK economic inactivity rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than the year before.

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