State Of The Epidemic In Scotland - 17 December 2021

18th December 2021

This report summarises the current situation of the Covid-19 epidemic in Scotland. It brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the epidemic in Scotland at this point in time, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next. This summarises the data up to and including 16 December 2021 on Covid-19 in Scotland. This updates the previous publication published on 10 December1 . The information in this document helps the Scottish Government, the health service and the wider public sector respond to the epidemic and put in place what is
needed to keep us safe and treat people who have the virus.

This edition of the State of the Epidemic summarises current data on Covid-19 at a national and local level, and how Scotland currently compares to the rest of the UK. It looks at the vaccination program in Scotland and its impact. Information is provided about variants of concern and what impact these may have. Bringing this information together in one place gives the opportunity to better understand the current state of the epidemic in Scotland.

Please note that due to Christmas period the next publication will be on 23 December 2021 followed by a publication on 7 January 2022.

Key Points
 The latest R value for Scotland, as of 30 November (using data to 13 December), was between 0.9 and 1.1, with a growth rate of between -2% and 2%. The lower and upper limit of R value has remained the same since the previous week, but the upper and lower limits of the growth rate have increased since last week. These figures are based on data to 13 December 2021 and based on a point in time when the Delta variant made up the majority of cases.
 Latest modelled estimates suggest that, as at 23 November, the
incidence of new daily infections in Scotland was between 96 and 128 new infections per 100,000. These figures are based on data to 13 December 2021 and based on a point in time when the Delta variant made up the majority of cases.
 An average of 4,441 cases were reported per day in the 7 days to 16 December. This is a 59% increase from the daily average of 2,789 recorded on 9 December.
 In the last week, 7 day case rates in Scotland have consistently
increased. There were 499 weekly cases per 100,000 population in
the week to 13 December, which is a 34% increase from 372 weekly
cases per 100,000 on 6 December. This is lower than the most recent peak (825 weekly cases per 100,000 on 6 September) but higher than the peak in July (425 weekly cases per 100,000 recorded on 3 July).
 As of 13 December, the highest case rates (by specimen date) were observed amongst those aged under 20, followed by 20-39, 40-59, 60-79 and 80+. In the week to 13 December, case rates have increased in all age groups.
 45.4% of all PCR tests from Pillar 2 Lighthouse Labs had the S-gene target failure, as reported on 16 December. S-gene target failure is used as a proxy for Omicron cases.
 As of 5 PM on 16 December, there have been a total of 663
confirmed cases of Omicron variant (B.1.1.529), as determined
through whole genome sequencing.
 In the week to 16 December Covid-19 hospital occupancy and Covid19 ICU occupancy (short and long stay) decreased by 8% and 11% overall from this time last week.
 There were 84 deaths registered where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate in the week to 12 December 2021. This is a
decrease of 7 (-8%) in the number of deaths from the previous week.
 Nationwide, wastewater Covid-19 RNA levels have shown a decrease from the elevated levels seen in the last two weeks. The week ending 14 December saw levels of around 58 million gene copies per person per day (Mgc/p/d), down from around 74 Mgc/p/d in the previous week.
 Over 4.3 million people in Scotland have been given a first vaccine against Covid-19, almost 4 million have received a second dose, and over 2.3 million people have received a booster or dose 3 by 16 December.
 West Lothian currently has the highest weekly case rate in Scotland reporting 747 weekly cases per 100,000 in the week to 13 December. Orkney Islands has the lowest case rate in Scotland, reporting 196 weekly cases per 100,000 population.
 As determined through the latest weekly ONS survey, the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 in the private residential population in Scotland has decreased over the most recent two weeks, however the trend is uncertain in the most recent week (5 to 11 December 2021).
 Due to uncertainty surrounding the Omicron variant and its increasing prevalence across the UK, SPI-M has been unable to produce consensus medium-term projections for hospital admissions and ICU occupancy this week.

Covid-19 Cases in Scotland
An average of 4,441 cases were reported per day in the 7 days to 16 December. This is a 59% increase from the daily average of 2,789 recorded on 9 December
. This includes 663 cases of confirmed
Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) which had been reported up to 16
December .
In the last week, 7 day case rates (by specimen date) have increased consistently in Scotland. There were 499 weekly cases per 100,000 population in the week to 13 December, which is a 34% increase from 372 weekly cases per 100,000 on 6 December6
. This is lower than the most recent peak of 825 weekly cases per 100,000 on 6 September but higher than the previous peak of 425 weekly cases recorded on 3 July (Figure 2).
In the week to 10 December 2021, there were 524 cases (PCR testing only) per 100,000 among unvaccinated individuals, compared to 350 cases per 100,000 for those that had been vaccinated with two or more doses

The above are extracts and the full report contains much more information including latest thoughts on Omicron.

Read the full report HERE
Pdf 24 pages