GDP Fall Lower Than Expected But Recession Is Here

11th November 2022

The first quarterly estimate of UK gross domestic product (GDP) shows an estimated fall of 0.2% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022.

Monthly estimates published today (11 November 2022) show that GDP fell by 0.6% in September 2022 which was affected by the bank holiday for the State Funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, where some businesses closed or operated differently on this day.

In output terms, there was a slowing on the quarter for the services, production and construction industries; the services sector slowed to flat output on the quarter driven by a fall in consumer-facing services, while the production sector fell by 1.5% in Quarter 3 2022, including falls in all 13 sub-sectors of the manufacturing sector.

In expenditure terms, real household expenditure fell by 0.5% in Quarter 3 2022, while there were also large positive movements in international trade flows in the third quarter.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the implied GDP deflator rose by 5.8%, primarily reflecting higher cost pressures faced by households.

Read the full report from The Office for National Statistics
HERE