Rising Cost Of Pasta, Bread And Other Everyday Foods Leaves Most Vulnerable The Worst Off

22nd December 2022

Around half of all adults in Great Britain report buying less when food shopping, with lower-income households hardest hit by rising food costs. Concerns over Christmas food prices are also far higher than last year.

Overall inflation including housing costs (CPIH) fell from October to November 2022, but the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks has continued to rise.

The price of the lowest-cost household essentials like pasta, tea and bread have all gone up significantly in the past year, as highlighted in our experimental analysis article.

The most vulnerable appear to be the hardest hit, with 61% of those in the most deprived areas buying less food compared with last year, as opposed to 44% in the least deprived areas, according to our Public opinions and social trends data.

With Christmas just days away, over four in five adults (81%) reported to the Food Standards Agency (FSA) that they were concerned about the cost of food during Christmas and New Year - up from 62% in the same period last year.

Rising food prices may even have a knock-on effect on health, with nearly one-quarter (23%) of survey participants saying they skipped or reduced the size of a meal because they could not afford to buy food, according to the FSA.

To see how inflation is impacting your cost of living, you can use our personal inflation calculator.

Food and drink prices rising at fastest rate since 1977
Overall inflation including housing costs (CPIH) decreased from 9.6% in October 2022 to 9.3% in November 2022.

Despite this, food and non-alcoholic drink inflation rose by 16.5% in the 12 months to November 2022, the highest increase since September 1977 (17.6%), according to data from the ONS Consumer Price Inflation bulletin.

Price rises for food and non-alcoholic drinks are having the greatest effect on record when it comes to driving up the overall inflation rate, with a 1.51 percentage point contribution in November 2022, the largest contribution since the start of the National Statistics series in 2006.

We are using the official inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH). This rate increases or decreases based on changing prices for different goods and services. The Consumer Price Index inflation without housing costs (CPI) is 10.7%.

Staple foods, such as breads and cereals, have seen the largest price increases in the last month, increasing by 1.9%, contributing towards an increase of 16.6% in the year to November 2022.

This inflation increase has a greater effect on low-income households, who spend a greater proportion of their household budget on food and non-alcoholic drink, ONS data shows.

The inflation gap between low-income and high-income households is the largest it has been since March 2009, according to our Inflation and cost of living for household groups, UK: October 2022 article. In the year to October 2022, annual inflation (CPIH) for low-income households stood at 10.5%, while the figure for high-income households was 9.1%.

Vegetable oil, pasta and tea among the lowest-cost everyday food items that are seeing the largest price rises
The majority of lowest-cost everyday grocery items have been rising in price. Although not directly comparable, the rise in prices for these items is similar to the 15% rise in the official measure of inflation for food and drink, reported in September 2022.

Using experimental methods, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) tracked the cost of 30 everyday grocery items, covering fresh fruit and vegetables, cupboard staples and chilled products. These data show that many of the lowest-cost items have gone up in price, although a small number have also decreased slightly in price.

Of the 30 sampled lowest-cost items, nine increased by more than 20% in the year to September 2022. The lowest-cost vegetable oil, pasta and tea were the items that experienced the largest increases in price during this period. Vegetable oil rose by 65%, pasta rose by 60%, and tea rose by 46%.

Lowest-cost vegetable oil, pasta and tea are among the nine items to have risen by more than 20% in the 12 months to September 2022.

Overall inflation is causing consumers to buy less food - with those living in deprived areas more likely to be hardest hit
The stark price rise in so many staple food items is causing people to buy less.

More than half (51%) of adults in Great Britain reported buying less when food shopping in the last two weeks. That has gone up from 1 in 10 (10%) adults a year ago, according to data from our Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN) between 22 November and 4 December 2022.

Buying less food was more common for those living in the most deprived areas of England, with around three in five adults (61%) reporting they were buying less food when they went food shopping, compared with 44% of people in the least deprived areas.

Recent findings from the ONS Retail Sales bulletin highlighted that supermarkets have also noticed a decline in volumes sold because of increased cost of living and food prices. Food sales volumes have been on a downward trend since summer 2021, but rose by 0.9% in November 2022, with some retailers suggesting this was due to early Christmas spending. Despite volume sales declining, value sales have been on the rise, suggesting consumers are getting less for their money.

In addition to buying less food, people are also trying to spend less, with 46% of adults reporting that they were spending less money on food shopping and essentials because of increases in the cost of living, according to OPN data.

This change in behaviour was reported by 54% of adults in England's most deprived areas, compared with just over one-third of adults (36%) in the least deprived areas.

Over half of all adults in the most deprived areas of England reported spending less on their food shopping and essentials because of increases in the cost of living.

Proportion of adults who reported that they were spending less on their food shopping and essentials because of increases in the cost of living, by deprivation quintile, England, 22 November to 4 December 2022

Rising staple food prices may be causing concerns for consumers about their ability to afford food
Around one in six (16%) adults in Great Britain were somewhat or very worried that their food would run out before they had money to buy more, while 6% said their household had run out of food and could not afford to buy more, new data from the OPN survey shows.

To save money on food, further data from the survey found that around three in five (59%) adults reported eating out less (which includes takeaways and eating at restaurants), just over half (53%) reported buying cheaper food, while 37% reported buying discounted food.

In November 2022, the Food Standards Agency's (FSA) Consumer Insights Tracker found that 32% of participants reported feeling worried about being able to afford food in the next month, an increase from 25% reported in the same period a year ago (November 2021). However, this is a decrease from 39% in the previous month (October 2022).

Read much more at
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/risingcostofpastabreadandothereverydayfoodsleavesmostvulnerabletheworstoff/2022-12-22