Coronavirus Covid-19 Modelling The Epidemic

29th December 2022

The reproduction rate R in Scotland is currently estimated as being between 1.0 and 1.2 as at 6th December. Both the lower limit and the upper limit have increased since the last publication.

The last time the lower limit for R was estimated to be at or above 1 was in issue 103 of this publication, in reference to 21st June 2022.

The daily growth rate for Scotland is currently estimated as between 0% and 3% as at 6th December. Both the lower limit and the upper limit have increased since the last publication.

The last time the lower limit for the growth rate was estimated to be 0% or higher was also in issue 103 of this publication, in reference to 21st June 2022.

EMRG was unable to reach a consensus on the incidence of new daily infections in Scotland as at 6th December.

The most recent wave of the Scottish Contact Survey (8th - 14th December) indicate an average of 6.2 contacts. This has increased by 11% compared to the previous wave of the survey (24th - 30th November) where average contacts were 5.6. Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the average daily contacts for adults in the UK were reported to be 10.8.

Mean contacts in the work setting have increased by 58% compared to the previous wave of the survey, whereas mean contacts in the home and other setting (contacts outside home, school and work) have decreased by 7% and 22% respectively.
Mean contacts in the 40-49 age group have remained at a similar level compared to the previous wave. Mean contacts have increased in all other age groups by at least 7%.

The largest increase in interactions between age groups compared to the previous wave of the survey was between the 18-29 age group with themselves .

Pubs and restaurants had the largest increase in percentage of participants visiting compared to the previous wave of the survey, increasing from 54% to 60%. The percentage of participants attending an outside event saw the largest decrease, reducing from 72% to 69%.

The percentage of people wearing a face covering where they have at least one contact outside of the home has increased from 19% to 20% since the last wave of the survey.

The percentage of people who had taken at least one lateral flow test in the previous 7 days increased from 18% to 21% since the last wave of the survey.

The SPI-M-O consensus view is that by 31st January 2023, daily hospitalisations from Covid-19 in Scotland are estimated to be between 9 and 228, and hospital occupancy is estimated to be between 581 and 2055.

Nationwide, during the period 1st - 14th December, wastewater Covid-19 levels were in the range of 43 to 74 million gene copies per person per day (Mgc/p/d), an increase relative to the previous two weeks of data (33 - 48 Mgc/p/d during 17th - 30th November). This indicates a continued increase in wastewater Covid-19 levels over five consecutive weeks from low levels previously seen in November.

Read the full report at
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-115/pages/1/