Economic Activity And Social Change In The UK, Real-time Indicators: 9 February 2023

10th February 2023

Most consumer behaviour indicators increased in the latest period, in line with usual monthly patterns, with debit card spending on "Retail" showing the biggest growth for the second consecutive week (9 percentage points) and spending on "Pubs, restaurants and fast food" increasing above the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) baseline for the first time since early December 2022 (Revolut). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

The total number of online job adverts was unchanged on 3 February 2023 compared with the previous week, having trended upwards throughout January 2023, however it was 21% lower than the level seen in the equivalent period of 2022 (Adzuna). Section 4: Business and workforce.

When looking ahead to February 2023, nearly one in five (19%) businesses reported that energy prices were their main concern, followed by inflation of goods and services prices (16%) and falling demand of goods and services (13%) (final results from Wave 75 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)).

The System Average Price (SAP) of gas and System Price of electricity both decreased by 6% in the week to 5 February 2023 and were both below their level reported in the equivalent week of 2022, by 23% and 8%, respectively (National Gas Transmission, Elexon).

Total ship visits and cargo and tanker ships visits were both slightly lower than the same period last year, whereas the average number of UK flights increased by 48% over the same period but remains 15% below its pre-coronavirus baseline (exactEarth, EUROCONTROL).

Consumer behaviour
In the week leading up to 29 January 2023, the estimated demand for fuel per transaction was broadly unchanged from both the previous week and the level seen in the equivalent week of 2022. Average fuel prices were broadly unchanged in the week to 29 January 2023 but were 12 percentage points below the level in the equivalent week of 2022. Total fuel sales were also broadly unchanged from the previous week after initially dropping from a peak seen in the week to 25 December 2022 in early January 2023. Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

Revolut debit card spending increased by 6 percentage points in the week to 5 February 2023 compared with the previous week, with increases in all six sector categories, in line with usual monthly spending patterns. For the second week in a row, spending in "retail" rose by the most in the latest period, increasing by 9 percentage points. Spending in "travel and accommodation" and "food and drink" also continued to rise, increasing by 7 percentage points and 6 percentage points, respectively.

All categories were above the level of spending seen in the equivalent week of 2022, with spending on "retail" being 47 percentage points higher, followed by spending in "automotive fuel" being 39 percentage points greater. Spending on "entertainment" remains the only category below the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) baseline, down 5 percentage points. "Pubs, restaurants and fast food" increased above the pre-coronavirus baseline for the first time since early December 2022. Users should note that these data are not adjusted for the potential effects of inflation on the value of transactions. Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

In the week to 2 February 2023, the aggregate CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases increased by 8 points from the previous week and increased by 7 points compared with the same week in 2022. Our accompanying UK spending on credit and debit cards dataset is available.

UK spending on debit and credit cards: monthly CHAPS-based indicator
The monthly data time series is available in our accompanying UK spending on credit and debit cards dataset and includes methodological notes that users should bear in mind. The monthly CHAPS index is calculated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), rather than being an additional series that is produced and validated by the Bank of England.

The monthly CHAPS-based indicator of aggregate credit and debit card spending in January 2023 was 25 percentage points lower than in December 2022, in line with expected seasonal patterns. All spending categories except "social" decreased from December 2022 to January 2023, with the largest decrease reported in the "delayable" category, which was down 55 percentage points.

However, the monthly indicator in January 2023 was 8 percentage points higher than in January 2022. All categories increased compared with January 2022, with "work-related" spending seeing the largest increase of 15 percentage points, followed by "social" and "staple" spending both increasing by 11 percentage points. "Delayable" and "social" spending were both below the pre-coronavirus baseline, by 28 and 4 percentage points, respectively.

The monthly CHAPS-based aggregate index can provide an indication of the direction of retail sales data, having followed similar trends since the CHAPS index was established in January 2020. The ONS publishes retail sales data around the middle of each month, approximately two weeks after the monthly CHAPS index is published in this bulletin.

Business and workforce
The total number of online job adverts was unchanged on 3 February 2023 compared with the previous week, with growth in 20 of the 28 job categories, falls in five categories, and three remaining unchanged. The "part-time and weekend" job category saw the largest increase, growing by 7% in the latest week. The largest decrease was in "transport, logistics and warehouse", which fell by 25% over the same period. Data in the "transport, logistics and warehouse" category in recent weeks have been affected by a singular data provider and should be used with caution when comparing with other periods in the year.

Online job adverts increased in 10 of the 12 UK countries and English regions compared with the previous week, with Wales showing the largest increase at 5%.

The total number of online job adverts was also 21% lower than the level seen in the equivalent period of 2022. The "HR and recruitment" category had the largest annual fall at 53%, while the East Midlands was 34% below last year's level. Our accompanying Online job advert estimates dataset is available.

Calculated as a rolling four-week average, the number of potential redundancies reported in the week to 29 January 2023 was 148% above the level in the equivalent week of 2022, while the number of employers proposing redundancies was 102% higher compared with the level in the equivalent week of 2022. Our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset is available.

Energy
System Average Price (SAP) of gas
This is the average price of all gas traded through the balancing market. Market participants post bids or offers for volumes of gas a day-ahead and within-day trades. The SAP aggregates the trades conducted on the On-the-Day Commodity Market (OCM). This is the market that the National Gas Transmission use in their role as residual balancer. Other markets exist for wholesale gas trading in Great Britain.

These data can be used to understand the general trend of gas prices within the UK. However, the data should be treated with caution, as these can be subject to extreme within-day trading prices and may skew actual traded prices. Additionally, while these prices reflect spot prices on the day, traders can opt for futures contracts where the buyer and the seller agree the market-determined price for gas for a future date. The daily SAP is used to determine the futures price and is therefore a useful indicator of supply constraints and demand pressures.

System Price of electricity
The System Price of electricity, made available by Elexon, is used to settle the difference between contracted generation or consumption of electricity, and actual generation or consumption, in each half-hour trading period in the Balancing Market, the mechanism used to balance supply and demand on Great Britain's electricity market. Companies are contracted to generate or consume a certain amount of electricity within each half hour (known as the Settlement Period). However, this may differ from the actual amount generated or consumed. Where companies have generated more or less than the amount of energy their customers consume, this difference is balanced by the UK's National Grid Transmission System, which buys or sells enough electricity to reconcile the difference. The System Price is designed to reflect the cost incurred by National Grid in doing this.

Transport
In the week to 5 February 2023, the average number of daily ship visits increased by 2% compared with the previous week, from 237 visits to 241, and was 6% lower than the same period last year (256 visits). Meanwhile the average number of cargo and tanker ship visits decreased by 6% compared with the previous week, from 90 to 85, and was 3% lower than the same period last year (88 visits). Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

The average number of UK daily flights in the week to 5 February 2023 increased by 3% from the previous week and was 148% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2022. However, the average number of UK daily flights remains at 85% of the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level seen in the equivalent week of 2019. Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Read the full ONS report HERE