The Impact Of Strikes In The UK - June 2022 To February 2023
9th March 2023
A range of sources exploring the impact of strikes in the context of the wider economic and social landscape.
In total, 2.472 million working days were lost between June and December 2022; of these, over three-quarters (79%) came from workers in transport, storage, information and communication.
There was evidence that rail strikes led to displacement of card spending towards buses and taxis as consumers changed their behaviour to mitigate the impact of strikes; in store transactions at Pret A Manger stores located in stations fell on most strike days.
Nearly 1 in 5 people reported having their travel plans disrupted by rail strikes that occurred in December 2022 and early January 2023, however fewer than 1 in 10 of those disrupted were unable to work.
Over half of parents reported that they would be affected if schools closed because of strikes, with 31% saying they would have to work fewer hours and 28% saying that they would not be able to work.
Overview
Between June 2022 and February 2023 there have been increasing numbers of strikes occurring across a range of industries, including many parts of the rail and bus networks, postal workers, civil servants, teaching staff and NHS staff. This article brings together a range of sources to explore the impact of the strikes that have taken place since the summer of 2022.
Causes of labour disputes
Our analysis of the history of strikes in the UK shows that since the late 1800s, strikes have become frequent occurrences in UK industrial relations. They occur when working people withhold their labour to bargain for better pay and conditions.
Pay disputes have been the most common cause of strikes in the years for which we have comparable data. Between 1999 and 2018, pay disputes accounted for around 75% of all working days lost because of workplace disputes.
Recent labour disputes have occurred in the wider context of the UK's rising cost of living. After accounting for inflation, the real value of regular wages fell by 2.5% on the year in October to December 2022, as shown in our Average weekly earnings in Great Britain: February 2023 bulletin.
Impacts of strikes
Measuring the impacts of strikes
Strikes can impact society and the economy in a variety of ways which are not easily isolated when measuring the economy. The obvious impacts are where output may be lost in industries where strikes occur through reduced working hours. This then also results in impacts to the economy where the public and businesses may change their behaviours. Some examples of typical responses may include:
in response to travel disruption, people may choose to work from home where that was not previously possible, or change the timings of any personal travel plans, where possible
people may change their spending behaviours on days they are unable to travel if they have chosen to work from home
when children are out of school because of industrial action taken by teachers, parents or guardians may be unable to work to provide childcare or change their normal working patterns
when postal services are disrupted, individuals may choose to purchase goods in person or switch to other postal delivery services, delay or bring forward purchases
There are two main reasons why accurately measuring the full impact of strikes can be complicated.
Isolating impacts from strikes from other co-occurring events
The period since June 2022 has seen not only an increase in strikes but several other major factors and events, including the rising cost of living, the death of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II and the first winter FIFA World Cup. Additionally, there have been other seasonal events, such as the bad weather that occurred in late December 2022. Although we present some data that may show impacts of strikes in certain periods, it is not possible to isolate how much of any change was because of strikes.
Data gaps and limitations
Strikes may impact data collection, which can disrupt time series or result in a lack of data to assess any effects. Strikes in certain industries may have impacts that are harder to capture in the data available. For example, impacts of NHS strikes such as appointment cancellations would not be captured in spending or real time indicators.
Working days lost
The number of working days lost because of labour disputes has been increasing since summer 2022. In June 2022, 93,000 days were lost, which rose to 461,000 in November and a further 83% increase to 843,000 in December 2022. December saw the highest recorded monthly total since November 2011, though this is still much lower than the number of days lost in the 1970s and 1980s (Figure 1).
Industry and working days lost
In total, an estimated 2.472 million working days were lost between June and December 2022. Of these, over three-quarters (79%) came from workers in transport, storage, information and communication. Transport, storage, information and communication consistently had the highest number of days lost because of industrial action from June 2022. This industry includes both rail transport and postal and courier activities, which experienced strikes throughout this period.
The education sector (which includes higher education, tertiary, and primary and secondary education) saw the second highest number of days lost between June and December 2022. This peaked in November 2022 where 174,000 days were lost in education, 38% of the total number of days lost that month. This reflects the primary and secondary education strikes that occurred in Scotland, the sixth form and college strikes that occurred in England, and university strikes that occurred across the UK.
In December 2022, almost all the working days lost came from transport, storage, information and communication (725,000 days or 86% of total days lost), with the second highest number coming from health (70,000 days or 8% of total days lost). This reflects the rail, postal and health strikes that took place that month.
Trade union membership and working days lost
According to the Department for Business and Trade's Trade union statistics, 23% of all UK employees were trade union members in 2021. Trade union membership rates were higher than average among employees in education (49%), health and social work (39%), and public administration and defence (39%), which were three of the four industry sectors that saw the most working days lost in the period June to December 2022. Transport, storage, information and communication, which saw the most working days lost in this period, had a unionisation rate slightly lower (20%) than that seen for all industries.
Country, region, and working days lost
Across the UK, Scotland saw the highest number of working days lost (34 working days lost per 1,000 employees) in December 2022. The South West was the English region that saw the highest number of working days lost (30 working days lost per 1,000 employees). Over the period June to December 2022, the highest number of days lost were seen in:
Northern Ireland (129 working days lost per 1,000 employees)
the North West (105 working days lost per 1,000 employees)
Scotland (99 working days lost per 1,000 employees)
Economic impacts
Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) by industry
Although monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for the last three months of 2022 were relatively flat at the overall level, industries that have experienced strikes have shown some evidence of shrinking output in the last months of 2022. GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.5% in December 2022.
As reported in our GDP monthly estimate, UK: December 2022 bulletin, the largest contributor to the fall in services in December 2022 was human health and social work activities, which fell by 2.8%. This included fewer GP appointments and operations, partly because of the impact of strikes.
The rail transport and postal and courier activities industries have seen decreases in output over the last quarter. The largest decreases were in December 2022, a month when both rail and postal workers held numerous days of strikes. The rail transport industry fell by 7.0% in December 2022. Postal and courier activities fell by 10.5% in December. This can be seen in our recent Index of Services, UK: December 2022 bulletin.
Spending and travel impacts
Industrial action on the railways on 13 to 14 and 16 to 17 December 2022 as well as 3 to 7 January 2023, did not appear to have had a large negative impact on total consumer spending, either in terms of total spent or when they spent. This can be seen in our recent How discretionary spending has been affected in recent winters article.
Although consumers could not travel on many parts of the rail network on strike days, total spend on travel only decreased slightly on these dates. Subcategories of travel spending show some evidence that rail spending tended to decrease on days where there were rail strikes, with these decreases met with increased spending on buses and taxis (Figure 6). This could indicate displacement behaviour where people changed their travel mode from trains to buses or taxis to lessen the disruption caused by strikes (although this pattern of behaviour would have also been affected by Christmas).
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