Economic Activity And Social Change In The Uk, Real-time Indicators: 6 April 2023

7th April 2023

In the latest week, consumer behaviour indicators generally showed positive changes compared with the previous week, with increases in all categories of Revolut debit card spending, including a 28-percentage-point increase in retail spending and an increase in retail footfall; additionally, there was an increase in the number of in-store transactions at Pret A Manger locations in London airports (Revolut, Springboard, Pret A Manger). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

Both the System Average Price (SAP) of gas and System Price of electricity experienced their largest week-on-week increase of 2023 so far in the week to 2 April, rising by 7% and 26%, respectively; both prices are more than 50% lower than the level seen in the equivalent week of 2022 (National Gas Transmission, Elexon). Section 4: Energy and housing.

The total number of online job adverts on 31 March 2023 fell by 2% compared with the previous week and was 17% lower than the equivalent period of 2022; adverts in 24 of the 28 categories and 10 of the 12 UK countries and regions were below the level seen in the equivalent period of 2022 (Adzuna). Section 5: Business and workforce.

Looking ahead for April 2023, approximately 7 in 10 (72%) businesses reported some form of concern for their business; the top two concerns reported by businesses continued to be energy prices (17%) and inflation of goods and services prices (16%) (final results from Wave 79 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)).

In the latest week, transport indicators have shown a mixed picture, with daily UK flights increasing by 10% when compared with last week, potentially driven by increased demand for flights following the start of the Easter holidays, while the average number of daily ships decreased by 17% on last week and was 12% lower than the equivalent period of 2022 (EUROCONTROL, exactEarth). Section 6: Transport.

Revolut spending on debit cards
In the week to 2 April 2023, Revolut debit card spending increased by 16 percentage points when compared with the previous week, with all six reported categories registering increases in the level of spending compared with the previous week, which is in line with typical within-month spending patterns.

The category that recorded the largest increase was "retail", with an increase of 28 percentage points. The "entertainment", "travel and accommodation" and "automotive fuel" categories also saw large increases, rising by 16, 14, and 13 percentage points, respectively.

All categories were higher than their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) baseline. "Retail" was the category with the highest difference at 94 percentage points above the baseline. The "automotive fuel", "food and drink", and "travel and accommodation" categories also had large differences, being 62, 48, and 43 percentage points above the baseline, respectively. Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

Automotive fuel spending
In the week to 26 March 2023, the estimated demand for fuel per transaction was broadly unchanged from the level in the previous week and 11 percentage points above the level seen in the equivalent week of 2022.

Average fuel prices in the week to 26 March 2023 were unchanged from the level in the previous week and 42 percentage points below the level in the equivalent week of 2022. Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

Transactions at Pret A Manger
The number of in-store transactions at Pret A Manger stores showed a mixed picture in the week to 30 March 2023, increasing in four of the location categories and decreasing in six.

The largest decreases were in Manchester and Yorkshire stores, which dropped by 13 and 11 percentage points, respectively. This was likely because of a shift in footfall as university students travelled for the Easter holidays.

All transport locations saw an increase. The largest was seen in store locations in London airports, which saw an 8-percentage-point increase, while London and regional stations increased by 2 and 1 percentage points, respectively. Our accompanying Transactions at Pret A Manger dataset is available.

National retail footfall
National retail footfall figures are supplied by Springboard, a provider of data on customer activity. Overall retail footfall slightly increased in the week to 2 April 2023 to 101% compared with the previous week and was 103% of the level in the equivalent week last year. Additionally, overall retail footfall remained lower than the equivalent week of 2019, at 87%, as it has been for every week of 2023.

Of the three footfall categories, retail park footfall and shopping centre footfall increased when compared with the previous week, at 103% and 101%, respectively, while high street footfall remained unchanged. Additionally, all three categories had increased footfall when compared with the previous year, with retail shopping centre footfall, high street footfall, and retail park footfall at 104%, 103%, and 101%, respectively.

Of the 12 UK regions and countries, overall retail footfall increased in five, decreased in five, and was unchanged in two compared with the previous week. The largest increase occurred in the West Midlands, at 106% compared with the previous week, while the largest decrease occurred in the East Midlands at 99%.

Read the full report HERE