GDP Monthly Estimate UK - March 2023

12th May 2023

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in March 2023, after showing no growth in February 2023 (unrevised from our previous publication).

Looking at the broader picture, GDP grew by 0.1% in the three months to March 2023.

The services sector fell by 0.5% in March 2023, after an unrevised fall of 0.1% in February 2023, and was the main contributor to the fall in monthly GDP.

Output in consumer facing services fell by 0.8% in March 2023, after unrevised growth of 0.4% in February.

Production output grew by 0.7% in March 2023, which was its strongest monthly growth since May 2021, following a fall of 0.1% in February 2023 (revised up from a 0.2% fall in our last publication).

The construction sector grew by 0.2% in March 2023 after growth of 2.6% in February 2023 (revised up from a 2.4% growth in our previous publication).

Monthly GDP
Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in March 2023 (Figure 1) following an unrevised flat February 2023. Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.1% above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020).

Looking more broadly, GDP grew by 0.1% in the three months to March 2023 when compared with the three months to December 2022, consistent with the output section in our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2022 bulletin. Services and production both grew by 0.1% in the three months to March 2023, while construction grew by 0.7%.

Monthly GDP grew by 0.3% in March 2023 compared with the same month last year. For comparison, monthly GDP grew by 0.6% between February 2022 and February 2023, revised up from 0.5% in our previous publication.

The largest contributor to the fall in services was a 1.4% fall in March 2023 for wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles. There were falls in all three industries in March 2023: wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles was the main driver with a fall of 4.1%. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported that, although this was the strongest March since 2019, it was still below average pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic March volumes for new car registrations. There was also a 0.9% fall in the retail trade, except in the motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, as reported in our Retail sales, Great Britain: March 2023 bulletin.

Information and communication was the next largest contributor to the fall in services, with a fall of 1.1% in March 2023. The main driver was motion picture, video and TV programme production, sound recording and music publishing, which fell by 6.1% in March.

Administrative and support service activities was the third largest contributor to the fall in services, with a fall of 1.3% in March 2023. There were falls in five of the six industries within, including a 2.3% fall in rental and leasing activities and a 2.3% fall in office administrative, office support and other business support activities.

The largest offsetting movements for services output were a 1.5% growth in arts, entertainment and recreation, where creative, arts and entertainment activities grew by 3.3% in March 2023. There was also a 0.1% growth in real estate activities, with growths in both imputed rent (of 0.1%) and real estate activities on a fee or contract basis (of 1.7%).

Consumer-facing services
Output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.8% in March 2023, after unrevised growth of 0.4% in February. Consumer-facing services were 9.6% below their pre-coronavirus levels (February 2020) in March 2023, while all other services were 1.8% above (Figure 5).

The largest contribution to the fall in consumer facing services in March 2023 came from wholesale and retail trade of motor vehicles and motorcycles, with a fall of 4.1%. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported that, although this was the strongest March since 2019, it was still below average pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic March volumes for new car registrations.

The next largest contributions were from 0.9% falls in both the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry (as reported in our Retail sales, Great Britain: March 2023 bulletin) and the food and beverage service activities industry.

Read the full report HERE