Economic Activity And Social Change In The Uk, Real-time Indicators: 6 July 2023

9th July 2023

Early experimental data and analysis on economic activity and social change in the UK. These real-time indicators are created using rapid response surveys, novel data sources and experimental methods.

The total number of online job adverts on 30 June 2023 decreased by 1% from the previous week, having remained relatively stable over the last 5 months, but was 9% below the equivalent period of 2022 (Adzuna). Section 3: Business and workforce.

The percentage of businesses that have reported the price of goods and services bought increased when compared with the previous month has been gradually trending downwards since March 2022 (initial results from Wave 86 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey). Section 3: Business and workforce.

Consumer behaviour indicators generally showed increased activity in the latest period, with Revolut debit card spending rising by 11 percentage points, the aggregate CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases increasing by 1 percentage point (Bank of England CHAPS data) and overall retail footfall at 102% of the previous week; however, the number of transactions decreased at most Pret A Manger location categories (Revolut, Springboard, Pret A Manger). Section 4: Consumer behaviour.

In the week to 2 July 2023, the preceding seven-day rolling average of the System Price of electricity fell by 34%, the largest week-on-week decrease since the end of March 2023 and was 68% lower than the equivalent period last year (Elexon). Section 5: Energy and housing.

In the week to 2 July 2023, the average number of UK flights was 6,122, which was 1% higher than the previous week; this is the highest average number of UK flights since the end of October 2019, having risen gradually since the beginning of the year (EUROCONTROL).

The total number of online job adverts decreased by 1% on 30 June 2023 compared with the previous week. In the latest week, there were decreases in 16 categories, increases in eight and four remained unchanged. The "domestic help" category saw the largest week-on-week decrease, falling by 11%.

The total number of online job adverts was 9% lower than the level seen in the equivalent period of 2022, having been relatively stable for the last 5 months, with 23 of the 28 categories below their level of a year ago. The largest decrease compared with the equivalent period of 2022 continues to be in the "human resources (HR) and recruitment" category, which has fallen by 45%.

Of the 12 UK countries and English regions, seven experienced a decrease compared with the previous week and five remained unchanged. Northern Ireland and Scotland saw the largest decreases on the week, falling by 4% and 2%, respectively.

Compared with the equivalent period of 2022, 11 of the 12 UK countries and English regions experienced a decrease in online job adverts, while only Scotland saw an increase, rising by 3%. London saw the largest decrease at 22%, followed by the East Midlands, which fell by 20%.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies
Calculated as a rolling four-week average, the number of potential redundancies reported in the week to 25 June 2023 was 79% above the level in the equivalent week of 2022. The number of employers proposing redundancies was 72% above the level in the equivalent week of 2022.

Automotive fuel spending
In the week to 25 June 2023, the estimated demand for fuel per transaction rose by 1 percentage point when compared with the previous week, which was 27 percentage points higher than the equivalent period last year.

Average fuel prices continue to trend downwards, falling by 1 percentage point when compared with the previous week. This is the 13th consecutive week that the average price of fuel has fallen, and it is now 74 percentage points lower than the equivalent week last year. Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

National retail footfall
National retail footfall figures are supplied by Springboard, a provider of data on customer activity. The breakdowns in this indicator are as follows:

overall footfall, which is the sum of the average footfall in each destination type weighted by their respective footfall volumes
shopping centre, which is a space that does not form part of the public highway, and is owned and managed by a single landlord
high street, which is the central part of the main business and commercial area of a town retail parks and shopping parks, which comprise retail warehouse units, wholly owned and managed by a single landlord.

Springboard's weekly data are defined over a seven-day period running from Monday to Sunday. Week 26 of 2023 refers to the period Monday 26 June 2023 to Sunday 2 July 2023. All quoted figures have been rounded to the nearest integer.

Read the full report HERE