GDP monthly estimate UK - August 2023 - Growth of 0.2%

12th October 2023

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in August 2023, following a fall of 0.6% in July 2023, revised down from a 0.5% fall in our previous publication.

Looking at the broader picture, GDP increased by 0.3% in the three months to August 2023, with growth in all sectors.

Services output rose by 0.4% in August 2023 and was the main contributor to the growth in GDP.

Output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.6% in August 2023 after a fall of 0.2% in July 2023, revised down from no growth in our previous publication.

Production output fell by 0.7% in August 2023 after falling by 1.1% in July 2023, revised down from a 0.7% fall in our previous publication.

The construction sector fell by 0.5% in August 2023 after a fall of 0.4% in July 2023, revised up from a 0.5% fall in our previous publication.

Monthly gross domestic product
Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in August 2023, following a fall of 0.6% in July 2023 (Figure 1), revised down from a fall of 0.5% in our previous publication.

This release gives data for August 2023 for the first time. In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, it also incorporates revisions to monthly data from January 1997 to June 2023, as published in our Quarterly national accounts bulletin on 29 September 2023. July 2023 is also open to revision for the first time. Further information on these revisions can be found in Section 7: Revisions to gross domestic product.

Looking at the broader picture, GDP showed 0.3% growth in the three months to August 2023 when compared with the three months to May 2023. Production grew by 1.2% and was the main contributing sector to the three-month growth. Services output rose by 0.1% and construction by 0.9%.

Output in the services sector rose by 0.4% in August 2023 and was the only positive contributing sector to the growth in monthly GDP. Production output fell by 0.7% and construction output fell by 0.5%.

The services sector
Services output grew by 0.4% in August 2023 following a fall of 0.6% in July 2023, revised down from a fall of 0.5% in our last publication.

Overall, the services sector grew by 0.1% in the three months to August 2023 compared with the three months to May 2023. Figure 3 shows the monthly contributions from the services sector to GDP in August 2023.

The largest drivers of the growth in monthly services output were professional, scientific and technical activities, and education.

Professional, scientific and technical activities grew by 1.2% in August 2023, following on from a 0.5% growth in July 2023. The architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis industry was the largest contributing industry, growing by 4.7% in August, followed by legal activities, which grew by 2.3%.

Education grew by 1.6% in August 2023, after a fall of 1.7% in July 2023 where there were two days of industrial action by teachers in England. Please note that education attendance is considered to be constant over the school year so summer holidays do not reduce the estimate of education output in August 2023. Looking at the three months to August 2023, compared with the three months to May 2023, education output showed no growth.

Information and communication also grew in August 2023, by 0.9%. The growth was driven by computer programming, consultancy and related activities, which grew by 2.4% in August after a fall of 3.1% in July. Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles also grew in August 2023, by 0.6%, with the largest contributor being the wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry's growth of 1.1% in August.

The largest downward contribution was from arts, entertainment and recreation, which fell by 7.4% in August 2023, following 6.8% growth in July 2023, its largest growth since May 2021. Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities fell by 10.8%, after growth of 12.2% in July, and creative, arts and entertainment fell by 7.7%, after growth of 4.6% in July. In the three months to August 2023, compared with the three months to May 2023, arts, entertainment and recreation has grown by 2.7%.

Consumer-facing services
Output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.6% in August 2023 and remains 4.3% below pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020), while all other services were 7.0% above (Figure 4). The largest negative contributions in August 2023 came from the sports activities and amusement and recreation activities industry (down 10.8%) and other personal service activities (down 4.3%).

The largest positive contributions to consumer-facing services in August 2023 came from accommodation (up 3.4%) and buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (up 0.7%).

Read the full report HERE