Consumer Price Inflation UK - September 2023 - Little Change From august

18th October 2023

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 6.3% in the 12 months to September 2023, the same rate as in August.

On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.5% in September 2023, compared with a rise of 0.4% in September 2022.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 6.7% in the 12 months to September 2023, the same rate as in August.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.5% in September 2023, the same rate as in September 2022.

The largest downward contributions to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, where prices fell on the month for the first time since September 2021, and furniture and household goods, where prices rose by less than a year ago.

Rising prices for motor fuel made the largest upward contribution to the change in the annual rates.

Core CPIH (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 5.9% in the 12 months to September 2023, the same rate as in August; the CPIH goods annual rate fell slightly from 6.3% to 6.2%, while the CPIH services annual rate rose from 6.1% to 6.3%.

Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 6.1% in the 12 months to September 2023, down from 6.2% in August; the CPI goods annual rate fell slightly from 6.3% to 6.2%, while the CPI services annual rate rose from 6.8% to 6.9%.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 6.3% in the 12 months to September 2023, the same rate as in August, but down from a recent peak of 9.6% in October 2022. Our indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates suggest that the October 2022 rate was the highest in over 40 years (the CPIH National Statistic series begins in January 2006). Excluding August 2023, the rate in September 2023 was the lowest since March 2022.

The identical annual rate between August and September 2023 was a result of prices rising by 0.5% on the month compared with a rise of 0.4% a year earlier.

The owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH) component of CPIH rose by 5.0% in the 12 months to September 2023, up from 4.8% in August. This is the highest annual rate since March 1993 where it was also 5.0%. The OOH rose by 0.5% on the month in September 2023, compared with 0.3% the same month a year ago.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 6.7% in the 12 months to September 2023, the same rate as in August, and down from a recent peak of 11.1% in October 2022. Our indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates suggest that the October 2022 peak was the highest annual inflation rate since 1981 (the CPI National Statistic series begins in January 1997). Excluding August 2023, the rate in September 2023 was the lowest since February 2022.

The identical rate in August and September 2023 was a result of prices rising by 0.5% on the month, the same rate as a year earlier.

The main drivers of the annual inflation rate for CPIH and CPI are the same where they are common to both measures. However, the owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH) component accounts for 16% of the CPIH and is the main driver for differences between the CPIH and CPI inflation rates. This makes CPIH our most comprehensive measure of inflation.

Read the full report HERE