GDP monthly estimate UK - October 2023

13th December 2023

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in the three months to October 2023, compared with the three months to July 2023.

Monthly GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in October 2023, following growth of 0.2% in September 2023.

Services output fell by 0.2% in October 2023, driven by a fall in information and communication, and was the main contributor to the fall in growth in GDP; this follows growth of 0.2% in September 2023.

Production output fell by 0.8% in October 2023, driven by widespread declines in manufacturing, after showing no growth in September 2023.

The construction sector fell by 0.5% in October 2023 after growth of 0.4% in September 2023.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in the three months to October 2023 when compared with the three months to July 2023. Services output grew by 0.1%, production output fell by 0.7% and construction fell by 0.3% over the same period.

Monthly GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in October 2023, following growth of 0.2% in September 2023.

This release provides data for October 2023 for the first time and no earlier periods are open for revision.

Output in the services sector fell by 0.2% in October 2023 and was the largest contributing sector to the contraction in monthly GDP. Production and construction output both fell on the month, by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively.

The main driver to the 0.2% fall in the services output was information and communication, which fell by 1.7% in October 2023, following growth of 0.4% in September. Looking at the three months to October 2023, compared with the three months to July 2023, information and communication saw a fall of 0.3%.

Five of the six industries in the information and communication subsection fell in October 2023, with the largest contributions coming from computer programming, consultancy and related activities, as well as motion picture, video and TV production.

Professional, scientific and technical activities fell by 0.7%, with falls in five out of the eight industries. Legal activities was the largest contributing industry, falling by 2.8% in October 2023.

These falls were partially offset by growth in administrative and support service activities, which grew by 0.7% in October 2023. This was driven by growth of 1.4% in rental and leasing activities.

Human health and social activities work grew by 0.4% in October 2023, driven by a growth of 0.5% in human health activities. There were three days of coordinated industrial action by junior and senior doctors in October 2023, where NHS England news reported that 118,026 appointments were rescheduled. This is less than the four days of strikes in September 2023, where another NHS England news article reported that 129,913 appointments were rescheduled. The number of coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations also increased in October 2023 compared with the previous month, as the latest vaccination campaign peaked.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our data sources catalogue. The monthly business survey (MBS) is used for 42.9% of the services sector by industry weight. In October 2023, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 85.6%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2022 now stands at 97.0%.

Read the full ONS report HERE