Gdp Quarterly National Accounts, UK - July To September 2023 Revised Down

23rd December 2023

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023, revised down from a first estimate of no growth.

UK GDP is now estimated to have shown no growth in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2023, revised down from a previously estimated increase of 0.2%, while growth in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 and all quarters of 2022 is unrevised.

Looking at the quarters open to revision, real GDP growth is unrevised in five of the seven quarters compared with the first quarterly estimate; however, it is important to note that the typical absolute average revision between the initial quarterly GDP estimate and the estimate three years later is 0.2 percentage points, as there is potential for revision to GDP when the annual supply and use balance occurs as more comprehensive annual data sources are available at a detailed industry and product level; all the GDP growth vintages for these quarters are shown in Table 4.

In output terms, there was a 0.2% fall in the services sector in the latest quarter, which offset a 0.4% increase in construction output and a 0.1% increase in the production sector.

The household saving ratio is estimated at 10.1% in the latest quarter, up from 9.5% in Quarter 2 2023 because of an increase in income outweighing a slight increase in expenditure.  

Real households' disposable income (RHDI) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% following growth of 2.3% in Quarter 2 2023.

Headline GDP figures
UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023, revised down from a first estimate of no growth. This now follows an estimate of no growth in the previous quarter (previously 0.2%). Figure 1 shows though, there have been no revisions to headline GDP from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2022 to Quarter 1 2023.

Revisions primarily reflect the trade-off between the timeliness and accuracy of estimates of GDP. In line with the National Accounts Revision Policy, this release contains revisions to data from Quarter 1 2022. This release includes revisions to 2022 and 2023 as a result of updated and revised source data, including new Value Added Tax (VAT) turnover data for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2023. Based on these new data we have also reviewed the balancing of the three approaches to measuring GDP from 2022 onwards.

While the quarterly path of real GDP at an aggregate level is unrevised across all of 2022 and Quarter 1 2023, there have been some revisions to individual components for GDP. For more information, see Section 6: Revisions to GDP. An indicative monthly real GDP path consistent with these quarterly figures can be found in the associated dataset.

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