National Population Projections - 2021-based Interim

31st January 2024

The potential future population size of the UK. These statistics are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.

Over the 15 years between mid-2021 and mid-2036, the UK population is projected to grow by 6.6 million people (9.9%) from an estimated 67.0 million to 73.7 million; this includes 541,000 more births than deaths, and net international migration of 6.1 million people.

The UK population is projected to reach 70 million by mid-2026; this growth is faster than in the 2020-based projections released in January 2023 with the projected increase mainly resulting from international migration.

The population projections for the UK are based on an assumption of long-term net international migration of 315,000 per year from year ending mid-2028 onwards; this is based on expert views and the latest data covering the last 10 years; note migration assumptions do not directly account for recent and future policy or economic changes and there is always some uncertainty in estimates of migration, meaning actual levels of future migration and resulting population may be higher or lower than those assumed in these projections.

There will be an increasing number of older people; over the next 15 years the size of the UK population aged 85 years and over is projected to increase from 1.6 million (2.5% of the total population) to 2.6 million (3.5%).

National population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict potential changes in international migration. There is uncertainty over future directions and levels of international migration. Demographic assumptions for future fertility, mortality and migration are based on observed demographic trends.

These projections use the latest provisional estimates of international migration to year ending June 2023, which will be revised as more data become available. See Section 4: Measuring the data for more information.

Users requiring national population projections for Scotland should continue to use the 2020-based interim national population projections: estimated international migration variant. No 2021-based projections have been published for Scotland because reconciliation and rebasing of population statistics, including international migration statistics for 2012 to 2022 incorporating insights from Scotland's Census 2022, are yet to be finalised. These data will be available and incorporated into the 2022-based projections, which are planned for release in October to November 2024.

The assumptions of future fertility and mortality are reused from our 2020-based NPPs. All assumptions will be updated in the next release, provisionally announced for publication in late 2024 on the ONS release calendar.

UK population
The UK population, which was estimated to be 67.0 million in mid-2021, is projected to rise by 6.6 million to 73.7 million over the next 15 years to mid-2036 (a 9.9% increase). In comparison, between mid-2006 and mid-2021 the population is estimated to have grown by 6.2 million (a 10.2% increase).

The total projected increase in the UK population over the next 25 years is proportionately less than that over the past 25 years (Figure 1). Between mid-1996 and mid-2021, the population grew by 8.9 million (15.3%); between mid-2021 and mid-2046, it is projected to grow by 9.5 million (14.2%).

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