Slipping Into Recession - GDP Quarterly National Accounts, UK October To December 2023

28th March 2024

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by an unrevised 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023, following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in the previous quarter.

The economy decreased for two consecutive quarters, while GDP for 2023 as a whole is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 0.1% compared with 2022.

In output terms in Quarter 4 2023 there were falls in all three main sectors with declines of 0.1% in services, 1.1% in production, and 0.9% in construction output.

In expenditure terms there was a fall in the volume of net trade, household consumption, and gross capital formation in Quarter 4 2023, partially offset by an increase in government consumption.

This release includes revisions to periods Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) to Quarter 4 2023 where total GDP growth is unrevised across all quarters, although there has been some revision to underlying components.

The household saving ratio is estimated at 10.2% in the latest quarter, up from 10.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023.

Real households' disposable income (RHDI) is estimated to have grown by 0.7% following broadly flat growth in Quarter 3 (July to September) 2023.

Headline GDP figures
UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by an unrevised 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023. This follows an unrevised fall of 0.1% in the previous quarter. Across Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Quarter 4 2023 the UK economy is estimated to have decreased by a cumulative 0.4%, revised up from our first estimate of a 0.5% fall as the level of GDP has seen small revisions. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2%.

As explained in our Communicating the UK economic cycle methodology article, the concept of a "technical" recession comprises two or more consecutive quarters of contracting output. Most experts consider the broader picture such as the depth, diffusion (spread) and duration of the change in GDP,

Read the full ONS Report HERE