GDP Monthly Estimate, UK - February 2024 - Miniscule Growth Better Than A Fall

12th April 2024

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in February 2024, following growth of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised up from 0.2% growth in our previous publication).

Real gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to February 2024, compared with the three months to November 2023.

Services output grew by 0.1% in February 2024, following growth of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised up from 0.2% growth in our previous publication), and has grown by 0.2% in the three months to February 2024.

Production output grew by 1.1% in February 2024 and was the largest contributor to the growth in GDP in the month, following a fall of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised down from a 0.2% fall in our previous publication); production output grew by 0.7% in the three months to February 2024.

Construction output fell by 1.9% in February 2024, following an unrevised growth of 1.1% in January 2024; construction output has fallen by 1.0% in the three months to February 2024.

The services sector
Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to February 2024 compared with the three months to November 2023, with output in 8 of the 14 subsectors rising over this period.

Professional, scientific and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, growing by 1.1% in the three months to February 2024. The next largest contributions came from admin and support service activities, which grew by 1.6% and transportation and storage, with output here rising by 2.2%.

These growths were partially offset by a 1.4% fall in education, a 0.7% fall in human health and social work activities and a 0.7% fall in financial and insurance activities in the three months to February 2024.

On the month, services output is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in February 2024, following a rise of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised up from 0.2% in our previous publication), with 8 of the 14 subsectors showing growth in February. Figure 3 shows both the monthly and the three-month contributions from the services sector to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in February 2024.

The largest positive contribution at the subsector level in services in February 2024 came from transportation and storage, which rose by 2.6% in the month. This was driven by a 6.5% growth in land transport services and transport services via pipelines, excluding rail transport, its largest growth since June 2020. Monthly Business Survey (MBS) data showed strength in the industry, and a reclassification of a company into this industry, from the wholesale trade excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, also contributed to the growth in February 2024.

Also contributing positively to the month was information and communication, which grew by 1.0% in February 2024, driven by a 1.5% rise in telecommunications, and professional, scientific and technical activities, which grew by 0.5% in February 2024.

The largest negative contribution to services growth in February 2024 came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, falling by 0.5% in February 2024, mainly attributed to a fall of 1.3% in wholesale trade excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles.

Also contributing negatively was human health and social work activities, which fell by 0.6% in February 2024, mainly caused by a fall of 1.0% in human health activities. This fall in human health activities mainly resulted from a fall in the market sector part of the industry, after it performed well in January 2024. Accommodation and food service activities fell by 1.2%, with declines in both accommodation (negative 2.1%) and food and beverage service activities (negative 0.8%).

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our data sources catalogue. The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 42.9% of the services sector by industry weight. In February 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 84.1%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 97.0% and 96.9%.

Consumer-facing services
Consumer-facing services grew by 0.2% in the three months to February 2024 compared with the three months to November 2023. The main driver to the growth was a 3.6% rise in output in sports activities and amusement and recreation activities, while the largest negative contributor was buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate which fell by 1.1% in the three months to February 2024.

Output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.1% in February 2024, following a rise of 0.7% in January 2024 (revised up from 0.6% in our previous publication), as shown in Figure 4. The main drivers to the fall in February 2024 were falls of 2.1% in accommodation and 0.8% in food and beverage service activities. The main offsetting movement came from the other personal service activities industry, which grew by 0.7% in February 2024.

The production sector
Production output is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to February 2024 compared with the three months to November 2023. This was driven by a 1.2% rise in manufacturing output. Electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply also contributed positively, with a 1.2% growth in this period, while there were falls of 2.0% in water supply, sewerage, waste management, and 2.5% in mining and quarrying.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in February 2024, following a fall of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised down from a 0.2% fall in our previous publication).

Mining and quarrying output was the only subsector that contributed negatively to production output in February 2024, falling by 0.8% in the month.

Electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply grew by 0.5% in February 2024, driven entirely by a 5.3% growth in the manufacture of gas: distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and aircon supply, which was slightly offset by a 0.6% fall in electric power generation, transmission and distribution.

Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output rose by 1.9% in February 2024, following three consecutive monthly falls in November and December 2023 and January 2024. Three of the four industries within saw growth with only water collection, treatment and supply falling in February 2024, by 0.9%.

Manufacturing output rose by 1.2% in February 2024, with widespread growth in 11 of the 13 subsectors. The largest contributor to this growth was the manufacture of transport equipment, which rose by 3.7% in February 2024. This is growth supported by the latest data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), which reports that car manufacturing in February 2024 was 14.6% higher than February 2023 and, year-to-date, car manufacturing is up by 17.8% in February 2024 compared with February 2023.

The next largest positive contributions, in February 2024, were from the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco, which grew by 1.3% and the manufacture of basic metals and metal products, which grew by 1.9%. The largest offsetting negative movement was in the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.), which fell by 3.3% in February 2024.

Read the full report HERE