Long-term International Migration, Provisional: Year Ending December 2023
27th May 2024
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022. While it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months.
With more complete data on how long people are staying in and out of the UK, our previous provisional estimates published in November 2023 have been updated; long-term net migration for the YE December 2022 and the YE June 2023 is estimated to be 19,000 and 68,000 higher, respectively.
Following a period of growth since 2021, the provisional estimate for total long-term immigration for the YE December 2023 (1,218,000) was broadly similar to the YE December 2022 (1,257,000), with non-EU arrivals accounting for 85% of the YE December 2023 figure; this bulletin covers a period before the implementation of changes to government policy on legal migration rules for family-, study- and work- related visas, which came into effect at varying dates from January 2024.
Non-EU immigration for work-related reasons increased from 277,000 in the YE December 2022 to 423,000 in the YE December 2023, replacing study as the main reason for long-term migration; almost half of those immigrating for work-related reasons came from India or Nigeria, most commonly in the health and social care sector.
The number of non-EU nationals arriving as dependants of those on long-term work visas has overtaken the number of main applicants, increasing from 125,000 to 219,000 for dependant applicants and from 152,000 to 204,000 for main applicants, in the YE December 2023.
There are signs that emigration is starting to increase, particularly among non-EU nationals who initially arrived in the UK on study-related visas (91,000 in the YE December 2022 to 133,000 in the YE December 2023); this likely results from the previous increase in the number of students who arrived following the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and includes those who arrived as students and transitioned to another visa type at the end of their studies.
Long-term immigration
Our estimates show that there has been a marked change in long-term immigration patterns since 2021. The ending of free movement of those from the European Union coupled with the introduction of a new immigration system in January 2021, easing of restrictions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and external events such as the war in Ukraine have all had an impact.
Migration policies are regularly adapted to changing circumstances; recent changes include a review of the shortage occupation list, an increase in the salary threshold for a "Skilled Worker" visa, and a change to the eligibility of dependants. See the Home Office Reducing Net Migration Factsheet - February 2024 article for more information. These policy changes were implemented at varying times from January 2024.
Revisions to migration statistics
Long-term international migration, provisional, data
Glossary
Measuring the data
Strengths and limitations
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1.Main points
Long-term net migration (the number of people immigrating minus the number emigrating) was provisionally estimated to be 685,000 in the year ending (YE) December 2023, compared with our updated estimate of 764,000 for the YE December 2022; while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, emigration increased in 2023, while new Home Office data show visa applications have fallen in recent months.
With more complete data on how long people are staying in and out of the UK, our previous provisional estimates published in November 2023 have been updated; long-term net migration for the YE December 2022 and the YE June 2023 is estimated to be 19,000 and 68,000 higher, respectively.
Following a period of growth since 2021, the provisional estimate for total long-term immigration for the YE December 2023 (1,218,000) was broadly similar to the YE December 2022 (1,257,000), with non-EU arrivals accounting for 85% of the YE December 2023 figure; this bulletin covers a period before the implementation of changes to government policy on legal migration rules for family-, study- and work- related visas, which came into effect at varying dates from January 2024.
Non-EU immigration for work-related reasons increased from 277,000 in the YE December 2022 to 423,000 in the YE December 2023, replacing study as the main reason for long-term migration; almost half of those immigrating for work-related reasons came from India or Nigeria, most commonly in the health and social care sector.
The number of non-EU nationals arriving as dependants of those on long-term work visas has overtaken the number of main applicants, increasing from 125,000 to 219,000 for dependant applicants and from 152,000 to 204,000 for main applicants, in the YE December 2023.
There are signs that emigration is starting to increase, particularly among non-EU nationals who initially arrived in the UK on study-related visas (91,000 in the YE December 2022 to 133,000 in the YE December 2023); this likely results from the previous increase in the number of students who arrived following the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and includes those who arrived as students and transitioned to another visa type at the end of their studies.
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These are official statistics in development, which means estimates may be revised and updated as improvements are introduced and as further and more recent data become available. Read more in Section 9: Measuring the data.
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2.Long-term immigration
Our estimates show that there has been a marked change in long-term immigration patterns since 2021. The ending of free movement of those from the European Union coupled with the introduction of a new immigration system in January 2021, easing of restrictions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and external events such as the war in Ukraine have all had an impact.
Migration policies are regularly adapted to changing circumstances; recent changes include a review of the shortage occupation list, an increase in the salary threshold for a "Skilled Worker" visa, and a change to the eligibility of dependants. See the Home Office Reducing Net Migration Factsheet - February 2024 article for more information. These policy changes were implemented at varying times from January 2024.
In the year ending (YE) December 2023, the provisional estimate of long-term immigration to the UK was 1,218,000, which is broadly similar to our updated estimate for the YE December 2022 (1,257,000) (Figure 1).
Looking at the historical picture, until 2019, EU nationals were the larger component of total long-term immigration, whereas since 2021, when the new immigration system was introduced and free movement ended for EU nationals, the majority of immigration now comprises non-EU nationals. In our latest estimates for the YE December 2023, non-EU nationals accounted for 85% (1,031,000) of total long-term immigration. This is similar to levels seen in the YE December 2022.
The top five non-EU nationalities for long-term immigration flows into the UK in the YE December 2023 were Indian (250,000), Nigerian (141,000), Chinese (90,000), Pakistani (83,000) and Zimbabwean (36,000) (Table 1). Since 2019, the number of Indian, Nigerian and Pakistani nationals arriving in the UK has seen the largest increase. There were approximately 62,000 more Pakistani nationals, 127,000 more Nigerian nationals and 178,000 more Indian nationals immigrating to the UK in 2023 compared with 2019.
According to Home Office figures for the YE December 2023 on Why do people come to the UK? To work, those from India, Nigeria and Pakistan made up the majority of those granted visas to work in the UK. Indian, Nigerian, Chinese and Pakistani nationals were also identified as the largest contributors to non-EU immigration to the UK on study-related visas in the YE December 2022 in our Reason for international migration, international students update: May 2024.
Since January 2021, EU nationals have required a visa to move to the UK. However, those with EU settled and pre-settled status can continue to travel to the UK without a visa. Long-term immigration of EU nationals was estimated at 126,000 for the YE December 2023, accounting for 10% of total immigration. This is similar to levels seen in the YE December 2022, where EU nationals arriving in the UK were estimated at 116,000.
British nationals made up the remaining 5% of total long-term immigration in the YE December 2023, with numbers estimated at 61,000. In the YE December 2022, an estimated 88,000 British nationals immigrated to the UK. Current estimates for British nationals are predominantly based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) and should be treated with caution.
KRead the full ONS article for more information and links HERE
