GDP Monthly Estimate UK May 2024 - Up 0.4%

11th July 2024

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in May 2024 after showing no growth in April 2024 (unrevised from our last publication).

Real gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 0.9% in the three months to May 2024 compared with the three months to February 2024, driven by a growth of 1.1% in services output.

Services output grew by 0.3% in May 2024, following growth of 0.3% in April 2024 (revised up from 0.2% growth in our last publication), and was the largest contributor to monthly GDP growth in May 2024.

Production output grew by 0.2% in May 2024 following an unrevised fall of 0.9% in April 2024, and showed no growth in the three months to May 2024.

Construction output grew by 1.9% in May 2024, following a fall of 1.1% in April 2024 (revised up from a fall of 1.4% in our last publication), and fell by 0.7% in the three months to May 2024.

The services sector
Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in the three months to May 2024, compared with the three months to February 2024. This is the strongest three-monthly growth rate since December 2021. There was widespread growth, with output in 10 of the 14 sub-sectors rising over this period.

Professional, scientific and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, growing by 2.5% in the three months to May 2024. The next largest contribution came from administrative and support service activities, which grew by 3.2%, and from human health and social work activities where output rose by 1.7%.

On the month, services output is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in May 2024, following a rise of 0.3% in April 2024 (revised up from a growth of 0.2% in our last publication), with 8 of the 14 services subsectors showing growth in May 2024. This is the fifth consecutive monthly growth in services output. Figure 3 shows both the monthly and the three-month contributions from the services sector to GDP growth in May 2024.

The largest positive contribution at the sub-sector level in services in May 2024 came from the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sub-sector, which rose by 1.8% during the month. This was driven by growth of 2.9% in the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, after a fall of 1.8% in April 2024. Please see our Retail Sales, Great Britain: May 2024 bulletin for more information on this industry's monthly movements. There was also growth in the wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, of 1.4% in May 2024.

Professional, scientific and technical activities also contributed positively to the month, growing by 1.0% in May 2024 - its fourth consecutive monthly growth. The growth in May 2024 was mainly caused by a 3.5% rise in scientific research and development, and a 2.2% growth in architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis.

Accommodation and food service activities also saw growth on the month, up 2.4%. The subsector saw growth in both industries, with accommodation and food and beverage service activities growing by 4.6% and 1.5% respectively.

The largest negative contribution to services growth in May 2024 came from information and communication, down 1.4%, following growth of 2.8% in April 2024 (revised up from growth of 2.3% in our last publication). The subsector saw falls in 4 out of the 6 industries, with the largest contribution coming from a fall of 2.8% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities.

Consumer-facing services
Consumer-facing services grew by 0.5% in the three months to May 2024, compared with the three months to February 2024. The main drivers of the growth were a 0.9% rise in output in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, 3.6% growth in other personal services, and 1.7% growth in food and beverage service activities. The largest negative contributor was buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, which fell by 0.8% in the three months to May 2024.

Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.8% in May 2024, following a fall of 0.6% in April 2024 (revised up from a fall of 0.7% in our last publication). The main drivers of the growth in May 2024 were a 2.9% growth in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and a 4.6% growth in the accommodation industry. More information on retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, can be found in our Retail sales, Great Britain: May 2024 bulletin. The largest negative contribution came from buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, which fell by 1.4% in May 2024. More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services May 2024 dataset.

The production sector
Production output is estimated to have showed no growth in the three months to May 2024 compared with the three months to February 2024. A 1.0% growth in electricity gas steam and air conditioning supply, 0.6% growth in mining and quarrying and a 1.5% growth in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities were offset by a 0.3% fall in manufacturing.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in May 2024, following an unrevised fall of 0.9% in April 2024. The largest contribution to the growth in May 2024 was a 0.4% growth in manufacturing. Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, and mining and quarrying also grew by 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively. These were partially offset by a fall of 1.9% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

Electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply output fell by 1.9% in May 2024, following growth of 0.5% in April 2024, with falls of 2.0% in electric power generation, transmission and distribution and 1.4% in the manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and air conditioning supply.

Mining and quarrying output grew by 0.1% in May 2024, following a growth of 0.9% in April 2024. The growth in May 2024 was driven by a 3.8% monthly rise in other mining and quarrying.

Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output grew by 0.4% in May 2024, following growth of 2.0% in April 2024. Two of the four industries within the sub-sector grew in May 2024, with the largest contribution coming from growth of 3.6% in waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery. The growth was partially offset by falls of 2.6% in sewerage, and 0.4% in water collection, treatment and supply.

Manufacturing output grew by 0.4% in May 2024 and was the largest contributor to the growth in production output in the month, following a fall of 1.6% in April 2024. Output increased in 7 of the 13 sub-sectors in manufacturing in May 2024. The largest positive contributions in manufacturing came from the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco, which grew by 1.7% after a fall of 2.1% in April 2024, and growth of 1.6% in other manufacturing and repair. The largest negative contribution in manufacturing came from a fall of 0.7% in manufacture of transport equipment.

The construction sector
Construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.7% in the three months to May 2024, compared with the three months to February 2024. New work decreased by 0.9% over the period, and repair and maintenance fell by 0.3%. Within new work, the largest contributor to the fall came from public housing new work, which decreased by 10.3%.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 1.9% in May 2024, which follows a fall of 1.1% in April 2024 (revised up from a fall of 1.4% in our last publication). The growth in monthly output in May 2024 came from increases in both new work (2.7%) and repair and maintenance (0.8%).

Eight out of the nine construction sectors saw growth in May 2024. The main contributors to the monthly increase were a 2.8% increase in new housing work, with both private and public new housing output increasing on the month, infrastructure new work which rose by 3.5% in May 2024 and non-housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 2.1%, on the month.

Evidence received from returns for the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) for Construction and Allied Trades noted warmer weather contributed to increased output in May. The Met Office confirmed in their Monthly Weather Report (PDF, 4.6MB) that May 2024 was the warmest May on record; the month started and ended with rain and storms, but the middle of the month saw more settled, warmer weather.

Read the full ONS report HERE