Labour Market Overview - UK August 2024

14th August 2024

This month's labour market figures show that the number of vacancies is continuing to fall, although these are still 11.0% higher than in January to March 2020. The unemployment rate is slightly below that of a year ago, while there was a modest increase in both the total number of people in employment and the number of payrolled employees in the latest quarter. Our Annual growth rate comparisons dataset, which includes comparisons of HM Revenue and Customs Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI), and Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, sets out the annual growth rates for these measures in recent periods and suggests a more subdued picture, with the number of employed people lower than a year ago while growth in payrolled employees has slowed over the year.

There has been a slight slowing in the annual growth in regular earnings in the three months to June 2024 to 5.4%, although this remains relatively strong. Total earnings growth has dropped sharply over the same period because of last year's NHS one-off bonus payments.

Latest data
Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK increased by 14,000 (0.0%) between May and June 2024, and rose by 227,000 (0.8%) between June 2023 and June 2024.

The early estimate of payrolled employees for July 2024 increased by 24,000 (0.1%) on the month and increased by 252,000 (0.8%) on the year, to 30.4 million. The July 2024 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data are received next month.

Increased volatility of LFS estimates, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, means that estimates of quarterly change should be treated with additional caution. We recommend using them as part of our suite of labour market indicators, alongside Workforce Jobs, Claimant Count data, and PAYE RTI estimates.

The UK employment rate (for people aged 16 to 64 years) was estimated at 74.5% in April to June 2024, below estimates of a year ago, but increased in the latest quarter.

The UK unemployment rate (for people aged 16 years and over) was estimated at 4.2% in April to June 2024, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased in the latest quarter.

The UK economic inactivity rate (for people aged 16 to 64 years) was estimated at 22.2% in April to June 2024, above estimates of a year ago, but largely unchanged in the latest quarter.

The UK Claimant Count for July 2024 increased on the month and on the year, to 1.801 million. Commencing in May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions are rolling out an increase in the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change is likely to affect around 180,000 claimants over a period of around 6 months, increasing the Claimant Count over that time.

The estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased in May to July 2024 by 26,000 on the quarter to 884,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 25th consecutive period but are still above pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels.

Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 5.4% in April to June 2024, and annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 4.5%. This total annual growth rate is affected by comparing with a period including June 2023 when the NHS one-off bonuses were paid.

Annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)) for regular pay was 2.4% in April to June 2024, and for total pay was 1.6%.

There were an estimated 100,000 working days lost because of labour disputes across the UK in June 2024. The majority of the strikes were in the health and social work sector.

Read the full report HERE