Russia's Illegal War Continues To Be A Military Disaster - UK Statement To The Osce

19th September 2024

UK military advisor, Nicholas Aucott, says Russia's illegal war suffers further setbacks as casualties mount, and it loses its first submarine in combat since the second world war.

Thank you, Mr Chair. As we meet for the first regular session of this trimester, I want to reflect on the current military situation regarding Russia's illegal war of aggression in Ukraine. It is now 2 years and 212 days since Russia conducted its full-scale invasion, a military action which Russia envisaged would be over in a matter of days. In that context, the current predicament can be construed as nothing less than a military disaster for the Kremlin.

Since we last convened in a regular FSC session, Ukraine now controls up to 900 square kilometres of Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast. Ukraine has a clear right of self-defence against Russia’s illegal, unprovoked and barbaric invasion, and its actions are demonstrative of the ability of Ukraine’s armed forces to achieve strategic surprise and expose Russian weaknesses.

At the military level, Ukraine’s effective use of manoeuvre warfare stands in stark contrast to Russia’s ‘meat grinder’ tactics. Russian casualties averaged 1187 a day in August. Contrast this to the daily rate of 544 Russian casualties in August last year, and 236 for the same month in 2022 and it paints a bleak picture for Russia’s military. Even more starkly, Russia has now lost more than 610,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the prosecution of its illegal campaign.

In the maritime domain, the campaign is faring little better for Russia. Despite having a considerably smaller maritime component, Ukraine has pushed much of the Russian navy eastwards from Crimea. Ukraine has damaged or destroyed a quarter of the Russian black sea fleet. This includes the destruction of the ‘Rostov-on-Don’, a $300M Russian submarine which was lost to Ukrainian action on 3 August, marking the first combat loss of a Russian submarine since the second world war. As in the land domain, this loss is a stunning Russian military failure.

Russia’s illegal campaign was instigated without justification. This forum met repeatedly, prior to the full-scale invasion, in an effort to avert this deliberate act of aggression. As expected, the consequences of these actions have been a tragedy, but perhaps less expected, for none more so than Russia itself.

Russia’s response so far has been to double down. It has turned to Iran and North Korea for the provision of weaponry as its own economy adopts a war footing, increasingly twisting it out of shape. Russia’s continued negotiation of deals for significant quantities of weapons from DPRK violates many UN Security Council resolutions, including ones that Russia itself voted for. Russia has also now procured ballistic missiles from Iran for the first time, representing a significant escalation that will only increase the suffering of Ukrainian civilians. Russia continues to issue threats, constructing a false narrative against NATO and the EU to suggest they are in some way responsible for Russia’s own illegal choices. Nobody compelled Russia to start this war and most participating states in this forum went to extraordinary efforts to try and prevent such a catastrophic course of action.

If Russia wants peace, there is a simple way to end this ongoing pattern of destruction. Russia must cease hostilities in Ukraine and remove its forces from Ukraine’s internationally recognised territory. The United Kingdom, alongside its partners, will continue in its enduring support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. Thank you.