Scottish Prison Population Projections - September 2024
4th October 2024
This is the fifth report published since 2023 on the Scottish Government modelling of the level of the prison population in Scotland.
It presents short term prison population projections for the six month period from August 2024 to January 2025. They have been produced using ‘microsimulation' scenario modelling, which simulates prison arrivals and departures, to estimate the number of individuals in prison on a particular date in the future.
The first issue of the Scottish prison population projections provided a detailed overview of the modelling technique used.
Key Points
On 20th September 2024, the overall prison population in Scotland was 8,247, and the remand and sentenced populations were 2,220 and 6,027, respectively. The latest prison population projections modelling to January 2025 suggests that:
The average daily prison population could be between 7,750 and 9,250 in January 2025. Modelling indicates it is likely [6] that the overall prison population will increase between 1st August 2024 and 31st January 2025.
The average daily remand population could be between 1,050 and 3,150 in January 2025. Modelling indicates it is likely that the remand population will decrease slightly between 1st August 2024 and 31st January 2025.
The average daily sentenced population could be between 6,000 and 6,800 in January 2025. Modelling indicates it is highly likely that the sentenced population will increase between 1st August 2024 and 31st January 2025.
There is uncertainty in the prison population projections over the next six months due to several factors, including variability in court demand, throughput and sentenced departures. Due to the June/July 2024 ER, sentenced departures in July 2024 were the highest since May 2020 (when an earlier ER took place). However, after ER was completed sentenced departures were temporarily reduced; in August 2024 they were at their lowest since October 2023 (if excluding January 2024 when they were low due to seasonal effects). The modelling accounts for slightly lower sentenced departures for the next few months, until the due dates for all those released early have passed. Since ER meant that July 2024 was atypical for flows into and out of the population, this month has not been included in the period sampled to produce key modelling assumptions on future flows into and out of the prison population. There is further uncertainty around the turn of the year when the population historically has tended to fluctuate rapidly during the months of December and January
The projections are produced to help inform high level decision making, planning and policy development. As they do not take account of the complexity of the prison population, they are not intended for use in the day to day management of those in prison.
Developments since the last projection publication
During June and July 2024 Emergency Release (ER)[3] was implemented for eligible individuals on short-term sentences who were already due for release in the near future. This action was taken to ease pressure on the prison estate, following substantial population growth during 2023 and early 2024. ER[4] led directly to 477 individuals departing during June/July 2024 and the population reduced to 7,876 on 20th July (the lowest level). Afterwards it increased rapidly, reaching 8,247 on 20th September.
Read more at https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-prison-population-projections-september-2024-edition/pages/2/
