Bank Rate Reduced To 4.75% - November 2024

7th November 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. The MPC adopts a medium-term and forward-looking approach to determine the monetary stance required to achieve the inflation target sustainably.

At its meeting ending on 6 November 2024, the MPC voted by a majority of 8-1 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.75%. One member preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 5%.

There has been continued progress in disinflation, particularly as previous external shocks have abated, although remaining domestic inflationary pressures are resolving more slowly.

CPI inflation fell to 1.7% in September but is expected to increase to around 2½% by the end of the year as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison. Services consumer price inflation has declined to 4.9%. Annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has continued to fall but remained elevated at 4.8% in the three months to August. Headline GDP growth is expected to fall back to its recent underlying pace of around ¼% per quarter over the second half of this year. The MPC judges that the labour market continues to loosen, although it appears relatively tight by historical standards.

Monetary policy has been guided by the need to squeeze remaining inflationary pressures out of the economy to achieve the 2% target both in a timely manner and on a lasting basis. The Committee's deliberations have been supported by the consideration of a range of cases that could impact the evolution of inflation persistence. These three cases are set out further in the accompanying November Monetary Policy Report.

In the first case, most of the remaining persistence in inflation may dissipate quickly as pay and price-setting dynamics continue to normalise following the unwinding of the global shocks that drove up inflation. In the second case, a period of economic slack may be required to normalise these dynamics fully. In the third case, some inflationary persistence may also reflect structural shifts in wage and price-setting behaviour. Each case would have different implications for how quickly the restrictiveness of monetary policy could be withdrawn.

The MPC's latest projections for activity and inflation are also set out in the accompanying November Report. This forecast is based on the second case. CPI inflation is projected to fall back to around the 2% target in the medium term, conditioned on the usual 15 day average of forward interest rates, as a margin of slack emerges later in the forecast period that acts against second-round effects in domestic prices and wages.

The combined effects of the measures announced in Autumn Budget 2024 are provisionally expected to boost the level of GDP by around ¾% at their peak in a year’s time, relative to the August projections. The Budget is provisionally expected to boost CPI inflation by just under ½ of a percentage point at the peak, reflecting both the indirect effects of the smaller margin of excess supply and direct impacts from the Budget measures.

There remains significant uncertainty around the outlook for the labour market. Data are difficult to interpret and wage growth has been more elevated than usual relationships would predict. The impact of the Budget announcements on inflation will depend on the degree to and speed with which these higher costs pass through into prices, profit margins, wages and employment.

At this meeting, the Committee voted to reduce Bank Rate to 4.75%, reflecting the continued progress in disinflation.

Based on the evolving evidence, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate. Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.

Europe
On October 17, 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points:
Deposit facility: 3.25%
Main refinancing operations: 3.40%
Marginal lending facility: 3.65%
This was the third rate cut of the year for the ECB, and the first back-to-back cut in 13 years. The ECB's decision was based on an assessment that inflation in the euro zone is under control, while the economy is struggling.
The ECB's decision to cut rates reflects a shift in focus from reducing inflation to supporting economic growth. The ECB expects inflation to rise in the short term, but to decline toward its 2% target in 2025.