GDP Monthly Estimate, UK - October 2024 - Slight Fall Of 0.01prcent
14th December 2024
Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October 2024, largely because of a decline in production output; this follows a fall of 0.1% in September 2024.
Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024, with growth in the services and construction sectors in this period.
Monthly services output showed no growth in October 2024 after also showing no growth in September 2024, but grew by 0.1% in the three months to October 2024.
Production output fell by 0.6% in October 2024, because of falls in manufacturing, and mining and quarrying output, following a fall of 0.5% in September 2024; production output fell by 0.3% in the three months to October 2024.
Construction output fell by 0.4% in October 2024, following a growth of 0.1% in September 2024, but grew by 0.4% in the three months to October 2024.
Monthly GDP
Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October 2024. This follows a fall of 0.1% in September 2024 and growth of 0.2% in August 2024.
Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024. Services output was the main contributor to the growth in the three months to October, increasing by 0.1%. While construction also grew by 0.4% over the last three months, these were partially offset by a 0.3% fall in production output over the same period.
Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative).
The services sector
On the month, services output is estimated to have shown no growth in October 2024. Of the 14 subsectors, seven had increased output, one showed no growth, and six saw output decline in October 2024.
The services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.1% overall in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024. There was a rise in output in 7 of the 14 subsectors in this period.
Professional, scientific, and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, increasing by 1.5% in the three months to October 2024. The next largest contribution came from education, where output increased by 0.7%. The largest negative contribution on the three months to October 2024 was administrative and support service activities, which fell by 0.8%.
The largest positive contribution in the services sector in October 2024 came from the information and communication subsector, where output rose by 0.9% in the month, following a fall of 2.0% in September 2024. Four out of the six industries in this section grew in October 2024. The growth was driven mainly by telecommunications, which increased by 2.8% in October 2024, following a fall of 1.1% in September 2024.
Growth of 0.8% in transportation and storage gave the next largest positive contribution at the subsector level in October 2024. This was driven by warehousing and support activities for transportation, which grew by 2.5%.
There was also growth of 0.2% in professional, scientific and technical activities in October 2024, driven by increased output of 1.6% in the legal activities industry, and growth of 0.2% in human health and social work activities.
The largest negative contribution came from administrative and support service activities which fell by 0.8% in October 2024. October's decrease was because of falls in three out of its six industries. The largest contribution came from a 2.3% fall in employment activities. There were also falls of 1.2% in office administrative, office support and other business support activities, and 1.1% in rental and leasing activities.
Other subsectors that contributed negatively to the services sector in October 2024 include:
a fall of 0.3% in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
a fall of 1.2% in accommodation and food service activities
a fall of 2.0% in arts, entertainment and recreation
a fall of 0.4% in education
An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 86.0% in October 2024. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 97.0% and 97.5%, respectively.
Consumer-facing services
Output in consumer-facing services decreased by 0.6% in October 2024, following growth of 0.4% in September 2024. Food and beverage service activities was the largest contributor to the decrease at the industry level, with output falling by 2.0%. This is followed by retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles where output decreased by 0.7%. There was a rise of 1.1% in accommodation in October 2024, which was the largest positive contributor to consumer-facing services in the month. This follows a fall of 1.7% in September 2024. More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services October 2024 dataset.
Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.4% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024. The largest positive contribution in this period came from a growth of 1.2% in the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry. See our Retail Sales, Great Britain: October 2024 bulletin for more information on this industry. This was partially offset by decreases of 0.7% in food and beverage service activities and 2.4% in the travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service activities and related activities.
The production sector
On the month, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in October 2024, following a fall of 0.5% in September 2024. This was caused by a 0.6% decrease in manufacturing and a fall of 3.1% in mining and quarrying. These falls were partially offset by growth of 1.4% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and a 0.5% growth in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities in October 2024.
Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in the three months to October 2024, when compared with the three months to July 2024. Three of the four production sectors saw falls over this period. The largest contribution to the fall was a 2.0% decrease in mining and quarrying. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply decreased by 1.2%. Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities decreased by 0.2%. Manufacturing experienced no growth in the three months to October 2024.
Table of contents
Main points
Monthly GDP
The services sector
The production sector
The construction sector
Cross-industry themes
Monthly GDP data
Glossary
Data sources and quality
Related links
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1.Main points
Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October 2024, largely because of a decline in production output; this follows a fall of 0.1% in September 2024.
Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024, with growth in the services and construction sectors in this period.
Monthly services output showed no growth in October 2024 after also showing no growth in September 2024, but grew by 0.1% in the three months to October 2024.
Production output fell by 0.6% in October 2024, because of falls in manufacturing, and mining and quarrying output, following a fall of 0.5% in September 2024; production output fell by 0.3% in the three months to October 2024.
Construction output fell by 0.4% in October 2024, following a growth of 0.1% in September 2024, but grew by 0.4% in the three months to October 2024.
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2.Monthly GDP
Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October 2024. This follows a fall of 0.1% in September 2024 and growth of 0.2% in August 2024.
Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024. Services output was the main contributor to the growth in the three months to October, increasing by 0.1%. While construction also grew by 0.4% over the last three months, these were partially offset by a 0.3% fall in production output over the same period.
Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.
There are no revisions included in this monthly release, in accordance with our National Accounts revision policy.
Figure 1: UK GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October 2024, but increased by 0.1% in the three months to October 2024
Monthly index, January 2007 to October 2024, UK
Oct 2024Oct 2022Oct 2020Oct 2018Oct 2016Oct 2014Oct 2012Oct 2010Oct 20080707580859095100105110Index, 2022 = 100
Jan 2024
● Monthly GDP: 100.4
Source: GDP monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics
Download this chartFigure 1: UK GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October 2024, but increased by 0.1% in the three months to October 2024
Image .csv .xls
Production fell by 0.6% in October 2024 and was the largest contributor to the overall fall in GDP in the month. Construction fell by 0.4%, while services showed no growth.
Figure 2: The production sector was the main contributor to the fall of 0.1% GDP in October 2024
Contributions to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) growth, October 2023 to October 2024, UK
GDPServicesProductionConstructionOct 2023Dec 2023Feb 2024Apr 2024Jun 2024Aug 2024Oct 2024-0.5-0.2500.250.50.75Percentage points
Source: GDP monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
Component contributions may not sum to total growth because of rounding.
GDP growth rates are rounded to one decimal place.
Download this chartFigure 2: The production sector was the main contributor to the fall of 0.1% GDP in October 2024
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Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.1% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to October 2023. It increased by 1.3% in October 2024, compared with the same month last year.
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3.The services sector
On the month, services output is estimated to have shown no growth in October 2024. Of the 14 subsectors, seven had increased output, one showed no growth, and six saw output decline in October 2024.
The services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.1% overall in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024. There was a rise in output in 7 of the 14 subsectors in this period.
Professional, scientific, and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, increasing by 1.5% in the three months to October 2024. The next largest contribution came from education, where output increased by 0.7%. The largest negative contribution on the three months to October 2024 was administrative and support service activities, which fell by 0.8%.
Figure 3: Services output showed no growth in October 2024, but grew in the three months to October 2024
Monthly and three-month services contributions to gross domestic product (GDP), October 2024, UK
MonthlyThree-monthInformation and communicationTransportation and storageProfessional, scientific and technical activitiesHuman health and social work activitiesPublic administration and defence; compulsory social securityFinancial and insurance activitiesReal estate activitiesOther service activitiesActivities of hh as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-activities of hh for own useEducationWholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcyclesAccommodation and food service activitiesArts, entertainment and recreationAdministrative and support service activities00.1-0.05-0.0250.0250.050.0750.1250.15Percentage points
Source: GDP monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
Component contributions may not sum to total services growth because of rounding.
Download this chartFigure 3: Services output showed no growth in October 2024, but grew in the three months to October 2024
Image .csv .xls
The largest positive contribution in the services sector in October 2024 came from the information and communication subsector, where output rose by 0.9% in the month, following a fall of 2.0% in September 2024. Four out of the six industries in this section grew in October 2024. The growth was driven mainly by telecommunications, which increased by 2.8% in October 2024, following a fall of 1.1% in September 2024.
Growth of 0.8% in transportation and storage gave the next largest positive contribution at the subsector level in October 2024. This was driven by warehousing and support activities for transportation, which grew by 2.5%.
There was also growth of 0.2% in professional, scientific and technical activities in October 2024, driven by increased output of 1.6% in the legal activities industry, and growth of 0.2% in human health and social work activities.
The largest negative contribution came from administrative and support service activities which fell by 0.8% in October 2024. October's decrease was because of falls in three out of its six industries. The largest contribution came from a 2.3% fall in employment activities. There were also falls of 1.2% in office administrative, office support and other business support activities, and 1.1% in rental and leasing activities.
Other subsectors that contributed negatively to the services sector in October 2024 include:
a fall of 0.3% in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
a fall of 1.2% in accommodation and food service activities
a fall of 2.0% in arts, entertainment and recreation
a fall of 0.4% in education
An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 86.0% in October 2024. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 97.0% and 97.5%, respectively.
Consumer-facing services
Output in consumer-facing services decreased by 0.6% in October 2024, following growth of 0.4% in September 2024. Food and beverage service activities was the largest contributor to the decrease at the industry level, with output falling by 2.0%. This is followed by retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles where output decreased by 0.7%. There was a rise of 1.1% in accommodation in October 2024, which was the largest positive contributor to consumer-facing services in the month. This follows a fall of 1.7% in September 2024. More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services October 2024 dataset.
Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.4% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024. The largest positive contribution in this period came from a growth of 1.2% in the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry. See our Retail Sales, Great Britain: October 2024 bulletin for more information on this industry. This was partially offset by decreases of 0.7% in food and beverage service activities and 2.4% in the travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service activities and related activities.
Figure 4: Food and beverage service activities was the largest contributor to the fall in consumer facing services output in October 2024.
Monthly and three-month consumer-facing services industry contributions to consumer-facing services output, October 2024, UK
MonthlyThree-monthAccommodationVeterinary ActivitiesRail transportTravel Agency, Tour Operator And Other Reservation Service And Related ActivitiesGambling And Betting ActivitiesActivities Of Membership OrganisationsActivities Of Households As Employers Of Domestic PersonnelBuying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rentWholesale And Retail Trade And Repair Of Motor Vehicles And MotorcyclesSports Activities And Amusement And Recreation ActivitiesOther Personal Service ActivitiesRetail Trade, Except Of Motor Vehicles And MotorcyclesFood And Beverage Service Activities-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.5Percentage points
Source: GDP monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics
Download this chartFigure 4: Food and beverage service activities was the largest contributor to the fall in consumer facing services output in October 2024.
Image .csv .xls
More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: October 2024 bulletin.
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4.The production sector
On the month, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in October 2024, following a fall of 0.5% in September 2024. This was caused by a 0.6% decrease in manufacturing and a fall of 3.1% in mining and quarrying. These falls were partially offset by growth of 1.4% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and a 0.5% growth in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities in October 2024.
Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in the three months to October 2024, when compared with the three months to July 2024. Three of the four production sectors saw falls over this period. The largest contribution to the fall was a 2.0% decrease in mining and quarrying. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply decreased by 1.2%. Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities decreased by 0.2%. Manufacturing experienced no growth in the three months to October 2024.
Figure 5: Production output fell 0.6% in October 2024, driven by falls in manufacturing and mining and quarrying
Monthly index, January 2022 to October 2024, UK
Index of productionMining and quarryingManufacturingElectricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supplyWater supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activitiesOct 2024Jun 2024Feb 2024Oct 2023Jun 2023Feb 2023Oct 2022Jun 2022Feb 20220708090100110120January 2022 =100
Dec 2022
● Index of production: 96.6
● Mining and quarrying: 89.3
● Manufacturing: 96.2
● Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply: 112.5
● Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities: 97.0
Source: GDP monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
Indexes are rounded to one decimal place.
Weights of these subsectors are available in the GDP(O) data sources catalogue.
Download this chartFigure 5: Production output fell 0.6% in October 2024, driven by falls in manufacturing and mining and quarrying
Image .csv .xls
Electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply grew by 1.4% in October 2024, following a fall of 1.9% in September 2024. The growth in October 2024 was driven by an increase of 10.4% in the manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and air conditioning supply. This follows a fall of 10.1% in September 2024. This growth was partially offset by a decrease of 0.6% in electric power generation, transmission and distribution.
Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output grew by 0.5% in October 2024, following a fall of 0.7% in September 2024. Three of the four industries within the subsector grew in October 2024. There were increases of 1.9% in sewerage, 0.2% in waste collection, treatment and disposal activities, and 0.4% in remediation activities and other waste management services. There was a fall of 0.5% in water collection, treatment and supply.
Mining and quarrying output fell by 3.1% in October 2024, following a growth of 3.7% in September 2024. The decrease in October 2024 can be attributed to a 3.7% fall in extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas.
Manufacturing output fell by 0.6% in October. It was the largest contributor to the reduction in production output in the month, following a fall of 1.0% in September 2024. Manufacturing output decreased in 7 of the 13 subsectors in October 2024. The largest negative contributions in October 2024 came from:
a fall of 2.6% in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations
a fall of 2.8% in the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.)
a fall of 3.7% in the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products
The largest positive contribution in October 2024 came from an increase of 1.8% in the manufacturing of computer, electronic & optical products.
The construction sector
Monthly construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.4% in October 2024, following an increase of 0.1% in September 2024. The fall in monthly output in October 2024 came solely from repair and maintenance, which fell by 1.3%. New work grew by 0.2%.
Four out of the nine sectors saw decreases in October 2024. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly decrease was private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 3.8%.
Construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024. New work increased by 1.7% over the period. Repair and maintenance fell by 1.2%. Within new work, the largest contributor to the increase came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 3.0%. The largest negative contributor in repair and maintenance came from private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 4.0%.
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