UK Population Increase Over 10 Years Mostly From More Immigration

29th January 2025

Over the 10 years between mid-2022 and mid-2032, the population of the UK is projected to increase by 4.9 million (7.3%) from an estimated 67.6 million to 72.5 million. This increase is projected to arise from net migration of 4.9 million compared with 6.8 million births and 6.8 million deaths.

The population projections for the UK are based on an assumption of long-term net international migration of 340,000 per year from year ending mid-2028 onwards; there is always uncertainty in estimates and projections of migration, meaning actual levels of future migration and the resulting population may be higher or lower than assumed in these projections.

Between mid-2022 to mid-2032, it is projected that there will be a similar number of deaths and births in the UK; although births are projected to increase slightly, deaths are projected to rise because of the relatively large number of people born in the post-World War 2 period reaching older ages.

Between mid-2022 and mid-2032, the number of people at state pension age is projected to increase by 1.7 million from an estimated 12.0 million to 13.7 million people (13.8% increase); this takes into account the planned increases in State Pension age to 67 for both sexes.

England's population is projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations between mid-2022 and mid-2032: by 7.8%, compared with 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland and 2.1% for Northern Ireland.

These projections assume higher long-term international migration than in the previous (2021-based) national population projections; the projections also assume lower future fertility and life expectancy improvement.

The projected population of the UK and its constituent countries for mid-2023 - within the 2022-based national population projections (NPPs) - does not match official mid-2023 population estimates, which were published in 2024. This is because, in the NPPs for England, Wales, and Scotland, figures for mid-2023 use migration statistics from our Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2024 bulletin and other data which were not part of the population estimates when they were last produced for mid-2023. For Northern Ireland, the NPPs differ from the mid-year population estimates. This is because of the application of demographic assumptions in the NPPs from the base year, especially where cross-border migration between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK is based on rates and informed by a five-year average of the years before mid-2022.

Over the first 10 years of the projections period, the UK population is projected to rise by 4.9 million from 67.6 million in mid-2022 to 72.5 million in mid-2032 (7.3% increase). In comparison, between 2012 and 2022, the population is estimated to have grown by 3.9 million (6.1% increase).

Projected growth over the 10-year period between mid-2022 and mid-2032 varies between the four countries of the UK. England's population is projected to grow by 7.8%, Wales by 5.9%, Scotland by 4.4%, and Northern Ireland has the lowest projected growth at 2.1%.

Over the 25 years between mid-2022 and mid-2047, the total projected growth for the UK population (Table 1), is 8.9 million (13.2%). In comparison, the population growth for the last 25 years between 1997 to 2022, was estimated to be 9.3 million (15.9%). Population growth over the next 25 years is projected to be slower than the 25 years to mid-2022.

Over the 25-year period between mid-2022 and mid-2047, England's population is projected to increase by 14.5%. The projected increase over the same period is 10.3% for Wales and 1.1% for Northern Ireland. Scotland is projected to increase by 6.2% over the same 25-year period. Northern Ireland's population is projected to increase until mid-2033, and decline thereafter, making its 10-year projected growth (2.1%) larger than its 25-year projected growth (1.1%). Figure 2 shows the population growth of the UK and its constituent countries is projected to decline between mid-2023 and mid-2047, with population growth in Northern Ireland projected to be negative from mid-2034 onwards.

Births, deaths, and migration
Over the 10 years from mid-2022 to mid-2032, the population of the UK is projected to increase by 4.9 million. During this period, it is projected that:

6,790,000 people will be born

6,807,000 people will die

9,914,000 people will immigrate long term to the UK

4,978,000 people will emigrate long term from the UK

Please note these figures may not sum because of rounding.

Over the 10 years between mid-2022 and mid-2032, there are projected to be around 17,000 more deaths than births. In recent years the balance between births and deaths has narrowed as we have seen a low number of births and higher number of deaths; this is projected to continue and by 2029, it is projected that there will be more deaths than births in the UK. Net international migration is the difference between immigration and emigration. During the same decade, it is projected that net migration will be 4.9 million people.

Net migration is projected to be the only source of population growth in the UK over the next 25 years. Over the 25-year period between mid-2022 and mid-2047 it is projected that there will be 1.1 million more deaths than births. During this period, it is projected that the population will grow by 8.9 million, with projected net migration totalling 10.0 million.

Read the full ONS report HERE