What We Know And What We Don't Know About The Welfare Benefits Changes So Far

19th March 2025

The team at Fraser of Allender have published their thinking on the coming changes to welfare benefits.

The UK Government's Green Paper that has been in the rumour mill for weeks. The statement contained some well trailed announcements and some new details, although there are also still some significant gaps in our understanding.

PIP will not be frozen, but eligibility will be restricted.

Work capability assessment scrapped from 2028.

UC rates to be rebalanced, and access to health elements restricted for those under 22.

A consultation on a new ‘unemployment insurance'.

‘Right to try' - a welcome development.

We know very little about how most of the announcements will affect Scotland.
PIP is being replaced in Scotland with ADP, and migration is expected to be concluded this year. None of the announcements therefore affect Scottish claimants of ADP, but they do affect the finances of the Scottish Government. As we discussed last week, the Scottish Government's block grant adjustment is based on the projected expenditure in England and Wales, and therefore a tightening of access to PIP will (all else equal) make the Scottish Budget worse off. It is then the Scottish Government's decision to move in lockstep or to find the additional funds from other sources.

Because the Green Paper has no costings for how much of the £5bn a year in savings comes from PIP, it's impossible for us to say how much this will mean for the Scottish Government’s Budget. But the ready-reckoner we provided last time out - showing an effect of £90-115m for every £1bn reduction in PIP spending by the UK Government - still applies.

Read the full article HERE