GDP monthly estimate UK March 2025 - Up .07% But Before The Trade War Started

15th May 2025

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in March 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.5% in February 2025.

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024; this is mainly because of widespread growth in the services sector in this period.

Monthly services output rose by 0.4% in March 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.3% in February 2025, and was the largest contributor to the growth in GDP in the month; services also grew by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025.

Production output fell by 0.7% in March 2025, following growth of 1.7% in February 2025 (revised up from 1.5% growth in our previous publication), but grew by 1.1% in the three months to March 2025.

Construction output grew by 0.5% in March 2025, following growth of 0.2% in February 2025 (revised down from growth of 0.4% in our previous publication), but showed no growth in the three months to March 2025.

Monthly gross domestic product
Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in March 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.5% in February 2025 and no growth in January 2025 (also unrevised from our previous publication).

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024. This is consistent with our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2025 release. A rise of 0.7% in services sector output was the main contributor to the increase in GDP during this three-month period. A 1.1% increase in the production sector also contributed positively, while the construction sector showed no growth.

Of the three main sectors, services output was the largest contributor to the monthly GDP growth in March 2025, increasing by 0.4%. Construction output also increased, by 0.5%. These increases were partially offset by a 0.7% decrease in production output in March 2025.

Over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.2% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to March 2024. Over this period, services grew by 1.5%, while production fell by 0.2% and construction output rose by 0.9%.

The services sector
Services output is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in March 2025, having also increased by 0.3% in February 2025 (unrevised from our previous publication). There was growth in 8 of the 14 subsectors in March 2025.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024. There was an increase in output in 10 of the 14 subsectors during this period, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from administrative and support service activities (up 3.3%), wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.6%), and information and communication (up 1.9%). Figure 3 shows the monthly and three-month contributions at the subsector level for services in March 2025.

The largest positive contribution in the services sector in March 2025 came from the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector where output rose by 0.9% in the month, following a growth of 0.8% in February 2025. All three industries in this subsector experienced growth in March 2025, with the largest positive contribution coming from a 1.5% growth in the wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry.

The next largest positive contribution at the subsector level in March 2025 came from information and communication, where output rose by 1.2% in the month, following growth of 2.3% in February 2025. This was mainly driven by the computer programming, consultancy and related activities subsector (up 3.7%) and the motion picture, video and TV programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities industry (up 5.3%).

The largest negative contribution in March 2025 came from administrative and support service activities which fell by 0.5%, after growth of 1.2% in February 2025. The fall was driven by a 2.0% decline in the office administrative, office support and other business support activities industry and a 6.6% fall in the travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities industry.

Consumer-facing services
Output in consumer-facing services increased by 0.6% in March 2025, following a growth of 0.7% in February 2025. The largest contributions at the industry level came from a 5.8% growth in sports activities and amusement and recreation activities and a 1.3% rise in food and beverage service activities. The largest partially offsetting fall came from a 6.6% decline in travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities.

Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.9% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024. The largest positive contributions in this period came from a growth of 1.4% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and a growth of 3.6% in other personal service activities. The largest partially offsetting fall came from accommodation, which fell by 2.2% in this three-month period.

The production sector
Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.7% on the month in March 2025, following growth of 1.7% in February 2025 (revised up from 1.5% growth in our previous bulletin). The fall in March 2025 was mainly driven by manufacturing output decreasing by 0.8% during the month. Mining and quarrying fell by 1.2%, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply output declined by 0.7%. There was one partially offsetting growth of 0.8% at the sector level, in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities.

In the three months to March 2025, production output is estimated to have grown by 1.1%. This period saw growths in three of the four subsectors: manufacturing (up 0.8%), water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up 4.0%); and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 1.8%). Mining and quarrying fell by 0.5% in the three months to March 2025.
Table of contents
Main points
Monthly gross domestic product
The services sector
The production sector
The construction sector
Cross industry themes
Revision to monthly gross domestic product
Monthly gross domestic product data
Glossary
Data sources and quality
Related links
Cite this statistical bulletin
Print this Statistical bulletin

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1.Main points
Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in March 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.5% in February 2025.

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024; this is mainly because of widespread growth in the services sector in this period.

Monthly services output rose by 0.4% in March 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.3% in February 2025, and was the largest contributor to the growth in GDP in the month; services also grew by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025.

Production output fell by 0.7% in March 2025, following growth of 1.7% in February 2025 (revised up from 1.5% growth in our previous publication), but grew by 1.1% in the three months to March 2025.

Construction output grew by 0.5% in March 2025, following growth of 0.2% in February 2025 (revised down from growth of 0.4% in our previous publication), but showed no growth in the three months to March 2025.

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2.Monthly gross domestic product
Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in March 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.5% in February 2025 and no growth in January 2025 (also unrevised from our previous publication).

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024. This is consistent with our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2025 release. A rise of 0.7% in services sector output was the main contributor to the increase in GDP during this three-month period. A 1.1% increase in the production sector also contributed positively, while the construction sector showed no growth.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

In this release, January 2025 and February 2025 are open for revision.


Figure 1: UK GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in March 2025 and grew by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025.
Monthly index, UK, January 2007 to March 2025
Mar 2025Jun 2023Sep 2021Dec 2019Mar 2018Jun 2016Sep 2014Dec 2012Mar 2011Jun 2009Sep 20070707580859095100105Index, 2022 = 100
Jun 2016
● Monthly GDP: 92.1
Source: GDP monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics
Download this chartFigure 1: UK GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in March 2025 and grew by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025.
Image .csv .xls
Of the three main sectors, services output was the largest contributor to the monthly GDP growth in March 2025, increasing by 0.4%. Construction output also increased, by 0.5%. These increases were partially offset by a 0.7% decrease in production output in March 2025.


Figure 2: The services sector was the main contributor to the 0.2% growth in GDP in March 2025
Contributions to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) growth, UK, March 2024 to March 2025
GDPServicesProductionConstructionMar 2024May 2024Jul 2024Sep 2024Nov 2024Jan 2025Mar 2025-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.8Percentage point
Source: GDP monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
Component contributions may not sum to total growth because of rounding.

GDP growth rates are rounded to one decimal place.

Download this chartFigure 2: The services sector was the main contributor to the 0.2% growth in GDP in March 2025
Image .csv .xls
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Over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.2% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to March 2024. Over this period, services grew by 1.5%, while production fell by 0.2% and construction output rose by 0.9%.

GDP is estimated to be 1.1% higher in March 2025 than it was in the same month a year ago.

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3.The services sector
Services output is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in March 2025, having also increased by 0.3% in February 2025 (unrevised from our previous publication). There was growth in 8 of the 14 subsectors in March 2025.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024. There was an increase in output in 10 of the 14 subsectors during this period, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from administrative and support service activities (up 3.3%), wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.6%), and information and communication (up 1.9%). Figure 3 shows the monthly and three-month contributions at the subsector level for services in March 2025.


Figure 3: Services saw growth of 0.4% in March 2025, with 8 of the 14 subsectors showing growth on the month
Monthly and three-month services contributions to gross domestic product (GDP), UK, March 2025
MonthlyThree-monthWholesale And Retail Trade; Repair Of Motor Vehicles And MotorcyclesInformation And CommunicationAccommodation And Food Service ActivitiesProfessional Scientific And Technical ActivitiesTransportation And StorageArts Entertainment And RecreationOther Service ActivitiesPublic Administration And Defence; Compulsory Social SecurityReal Estate ActivitiesEducationHuman Health And Social Work ActivitiesActivities Of HH As Employers; Undifferentiated Goods- And Services-Activities Of HH For Own UseFinancial And Insurance ActivitiesAdministrative And Support Service Activities-0.0500.050.10.150.2-0.1Percentage points
Source: GDP monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
Component contributions may not sum to total services growth because of rounding.
Download this chartFigure 3: Services saw growth of 0.4% in March 2025, with 8 of the 14 subsectors showing growth on the month
Image .csv .xls
The largest positive contribution in the services sector in March 2025 came from the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector where output rose by 0.9% in the month, following a growth of 0.8% in February 2025. All three industries in this subsector experienced growth in March 2025, with the largest positive contribution coming from a 1.5% growth in the wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry.

The next largest positive contribution at the subsector level in March 2025 came from information and communication, where output rose by 1.2% in the month, following growth of 2.3% in February 2025. This was mainly driven by the computer programming, consultancy and related activities subsector (up 3.7%) and the motion picture, video and TV programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities industry (up 5.3%).

The largest negative contribution in March 2025 came from administrative and support service activities which fell by 0.5%, after growth of 1.2% in February 2025. The fall was driven by a 2.0% decline in the office administrative, office support and other business support activities industry and a 6.6% fall in the travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities industry.

Consumer-facing services
Output in consumer-facing services increased by 0.6% in March 2025, following a growth of 0.7% in February 2025. The largest contributions at the industry level came from a 5.8% growth in sports activities and amusement and recreation activities and a 1.3% rise in food and beverage service activities. The largest partially offsetting fall came from a 6.6% decline in travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities.

Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.9% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024. The largest positive contributions in this period came from a growth of 1.4% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and a growth of 3.6% in other personal service activities. The largest partially offsetting fall came from accommodation, which fell by 2.2% in this three-month period.

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services: March 2025 dataset.


Figure 4: The sports activities and amusement and recreation activities industry was the largest contributor to the 0.6% growth in consumer-facing services output in March 2025
Monthly and three-month consumer-facing services industry contributions to consumer-facing services output, UK, March 2025
MonthlyThree-monthSports Activities And Amusement And Recreation ActivitiesFood And Beverage Service ActivitiesOther Personal Service ActivitiesWholesale And Retail Trade And Repair Of Motor Vehicles And MotorcyclesRetail Trade, Except Of Motor Vehicles And MotorcyclesAccommodationRail TransportVeterinary ActivitiesGambling And Betting ActivitiesActivities Of Households As Employers Of Domestic PersonnelActivities Of Membership OrganisationsBuying And Selling, Renting And Operating Of Own Or Leased Real Estate, Excluding Imputed RentTravel Agency, Tour Operator And Other Reservation Service And Related Activities-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.5Percentage points
Activities Of Membership Organisations
● Monthly: -0.02
● Three-month: -0.04
Source: GDP monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
Sum of component contributions may not sum to total consumer-facing services growth because of rounding.
Download this chartFigure 4: The sports activities and amusement and recreation activities industry was the largest contributor to the 0.6% growth in consumer-facing services output in March 2025
Image .csv .xls
An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 83.8% in March 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rates for the service sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.5% and 97.3%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: March 2025 bulletin.

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4.The production sector
Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.7% on the month in March 2025, following growth of 1.7% in February 2025 (revised up from 1.5% growth in our previous bulletin). The fall in March 2025 was mainly driven by manufacturing output decreasing by 0.8% during the month. Mining and quarrying fell by 1.2%, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply output declined by 0.7%. There was one partially offsetting growth of 0.8% at the sector level, in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities.

In the three months to March 2025, production output is estimated to have grown by 1.1%. This period saw growths in three of the four subsectors: manufacturing (up 0.8%), water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up 4.0%); and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 1.8%). Mining and quarrying fell by 0.5% in the three months to March 2025.


Figure 5: Production output fell by 0.7% in March 2025, but grew by 1.1% in the three months to March 2025
Monthly index, UK, January 2022 to March 2025
Index of productionMining and quarryingManufacturingElectricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supplyWater supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activitiesMar 2025Sep 2024Mar 2024Sep 2023Mar 2023Sep 2022Mar 202208090100110120130January 2022 =100
Source: GDP monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
Indexes are rounded to one decimal place.

Weights of these subsectors are available in the GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

Download this chartFigure 5: Production output fell by 0.7% in March 2025, but grew by 1.1% in the three months to March 2025
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Manufacturing output fell by 0.8% in March 2025, following a rise of 2.4% in February 2025. Manufacturing was the largest contributor to the overall decrease in production output in the month with 7 of the 13 subsectors declining.

The largest negative contribution came from a fall of 8.4% in the manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products, following growth of 9.8% in February 2025. There were also declines in output for the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (down 5.8% in March 2025 after growth of 4.4% in February 2025) and the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 5.1%). The largest positive contribution to manufacturing output in March 2025 came from the manufacture of transport equipment which grew by 5.0%.

Manufacturing output rose by 0.8% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024, with 10 of the 13 subsectors growing over this period. The largest contributors to growth were the manufacture of transport equipment (up 2.7%) and the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 3.8%). These were partially offset by a fall in the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 3.0%).

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 83.4% in March 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.7% and 97.6%, respectively.

The construction sector
Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in March 2025, which follows an increase of 0.2% in February 2025 (revised down from 0.4% in our previous publication), and an unrevised decrease of 0.3% in January 2025. The rise in monthly output in March 2025 came from both new work and repair and maintenance which grew by 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively.

Construction output is estimated to have shown no growth in the three months to March 2025 compared with the three months to December 2024. New work increased by 0.9% over the period, whereas repair and maintenance fell by 1.2%. Within new work, the largest positive contributor came from public other new work, which grew by 11.9%. In repair and maintenance, the largest negative contributor came from private housing repair and maintenance which fell by 1.9%.

Cross industry themes
Respondents to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Monthly Business Survey anecdotally reported some common factors as having played a part in performance across different industries in March 2025. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact of these factors.

Comments received suggested the change in Stamp Duty Land Tax thresholds for home buyers in England and Northern Ireland may have affected activity in March. Most notably, conveyancing solicitors and real estate agencies saw growth on the month as many cited purchases being completed ahead of the changes on 1 April 2025.

March is also a new car registration plate month. As stated in the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) news release: "this year's 'new plate' month represents the best March performance since 2019". The effects of this can be seen in the sale of motor vehicles but is also cited in the Business Survey as one of the main reasons for car and vehicle rental and leasing activity increasing.

The high level of gold prices and precious metals were also cited as a factor in increased activity during March 2025. This was evident across the manufacture of jewellery, materials recovery and parts of the wholesale sector.

Read the full ONS report HERE