Are we preparing for war? - No! - Bolstering Defence Amidst "More Dangerous World," - Deterrence and Preparedness

1st June 2025

The United Kingdom is undertaking a significant enhancement of its defence capabilities and spending, driven by what the government describes as an increasingly "dangerous and contested world."

While officials are stressing the need for preparedness and robust deterrence, current actions and rhetoric are primarily focused on responding to a heightened threat landscape, particularly from nations like Russia and China, rather than indicating an imminent expectation of war.

The Labour government, which assumed office in July 2024, is set to unveil its comprehensive Strategic Defence Review (SDR) tomorrow, Monday, June 2nd. This review is anticipated to detail the specific threats the UK faces and the strategic response, including how an increased defence budget will be allocated.

Recent announcements have already signalled a clear trajectory:

Increased Spending: Defence Secretary John Healey has confirmed the government's commitment to raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, with a firm ambition to reach 3%.

Industrial Reinforcement: A £1.5 billion investment is planned for at least six new munitions factories to boost sovereign production capacity and address depleted stockpiles, aiming for an "always on" manufacturing capability.

Modernisation Drive: Significant emphasis is being placed on modernising the armed forces, with investments in drones, artificial intelligence (AI), cyber warfare capabilities (including a new Cyber and Electromagnetic Command), and enhanced digital targeting systems.

Government figures, including Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Defence Secretary Healey, have consistently framed these measures as necessary precautions in light of escalating global instability and the actions of authoritarian states. The objective is to ensure the UK can "stand its ground," protect its interests, and fulfill its NATO obligations.

While some commentators and even military figures have used stark warnings, describing the current era as a "pre-war world" to underscore the gravity of the situation, the overarching message from the government is one of strengthening deterrence and ensuring the UK is adequately prepared for potential future conflicts, rather than girding for an immediate war.

The upcoming Strategic Defence Review is expected to provide a more detailed public articulation of the government's assessment of the global security environment and the long-term vision for the UK's defence posture in response.

Recent announcements and the general tone of the UK government and defence officials indicate a significant shift towards increased preparedness in response to a more dangerous and volatile global security situation, rather than an immediate expectation of imminent war involving the UK.

Here's a breakdown of what current information suggests:

Both Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Defence Secretary John Healey have spoken about a "more dangerous and volatile world" and a "new era of threat."

Specific threats frequently cited include:
Russia: Described as an "immediate and pressing" danger, particularly in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine and its "daily" cyber-attacks against the UK. The rhetoric strongly suggests a need to deter further Russian aggression.

China: Viewed as a "sophisticated and persistent challenge."
Other state and non-state actors: Concerns also extend to Iran, North Korea, and the evolving nature of warfare, including cyber and space domains.

Focus on Deterrence and "War-Fighting Readiness":

The upcoming Strategic Defence Review (SDR), due to be published on Monday, June 2nd, is framed as a response to these threats.

The explicit aim is to "restore Britain's war-fighting readiness" and make the armed forces "more integrated, more ready, more lethal than ever."

Defence Secretary John Healey has stated, "we prepare for war in order to secure the peace. If you're strong enough to defeat an enemy, you deter them from attacking in the first place." This underscores that the current posture is primarily about deterrence.

The increased defence spending (aiming for 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and 3% in the next parliament) and investments in munitions factories, long-range weapons, AI, and cyber capabilities are presented as necessary measures to bolster this deterrent capability and ensure the UK can act "if required."

Strengthening the Defence Industrial Base:

A significant part of the new strategy involves investing in the UK's own defence industry, with plans for new weapons factories and ensuring an "always on" munitions production capacity. This is seen as crucial for sustaining a credible defence posture and learning lessons from the war in Ukraine regarding stockpiles and industrial capacity.

Officials have explicitly stated that these moves, particularly the increased defence spending and readiness, are intended as a "message to Moscow." This highlights that Russia's actions are a primary driver of the UK's current defence policy.

No Indication of Imminent War for the UK Public.

While there are reports of updating classified homeland defence plans (which is a prudent measure given the heightened threat environment), there is no public messaging or specific civil defence measures being announced that would suggest the government believes war involving the UK is imminent or unavoidable.

The rhetoric is about being prepared for a more dangerous world and being a credible NATO ally, rather than mobilizing for an immediate conflict.

The UK is undeniably taking steps to significantly enhance its military capabilities and readiness. This is driven by a perception of a substantially worsened global security environment, with a particular focus on deterring potential aggression from states like Russia. While terms like "war readiness" are being used, the overarching strategy appears to be one of strengthening deterrence and preparedness for a potentially more confrontational era, rather than actively preparing for a specific, imminent war.

The government's actions are about ensuring the UK and its allies are capable of responding to threats, thereby reducing the likelihood of conflict.

The government will shortly announce the locations of new munitions factories.