How does UK munitions production compare to other countries

1st June 2025

UK Munitions Production: Ramping Up Amidst a Challenging Global Landscape.

The United Kingdom is currently engaged in a significant effort to revitalise and expand its domestic munitions production.

This drive comes in response to the heightened global security threats, prominently the war in Ukraine, which has exposed vulnerabilities in Western defence stockpiles and manufacturing capacities.

While direct, comprehensive comparisons are complex due to the secretive nature of defence data, current trends and announcements offer insights into the UK's position relative to other nations.

Current UK Efforts and Standing:

The UK government has acknowledged the need for a more robust defence industrial base, with recent commitments including a £1.5 billion investment in at least six new weapons and explosives factories and a stated goal to create an "always on" munitions production capability. Key initiatives include:

Artillery Shells: A new £224 million production line for 155mm artillery shells at BAE Systems in Washington, Tyne and Wear, is underway, aiming for an "eightfold increase" in domestic production. Additionally, a £163 million contract has been awarded for next-generation artillery shells. This reflects a broader NATO-wide push to drastically increase artillery ammunition output.

Overall Investment: The UK is channelling significant funds into its munitions sector, aiming to procure up to 7,000 domestically built long-range weapons, with total munitions spending projected to reach £6 billion in the current parliamentary term.

Comparison with Allies:

Many NATO allies and European partners are on a similar trajectory, having recognised the urgent need to scale up production after decades of decline following the Cold War.

United States: The US is significantly expanding its munitions output, particularly 155mm artillery shells, with a target of producing 100,000 shells per month by the end of 2025. This represents a substantial industrial capacity.

European Union: The EU has set ambitious collective targets, initially aiming to provide 1 million shells to Ukraine and now looking to achieve an annual production capacity of 2 million artillery shells by the end of 2025 or early 2026. Countries like Germany and France are also heavily investing in ramping up their national production lines. For instance, Germany's Rheinmetall is a major European producer aiming for significant increases in shell output.


Challenges for Western Nations: Despite these efforts, Western countries, including the UK, face hurdles. These include overcoming previous underinvestment, addressing supply chain constraints (such as shortages of explosives and raw materials), recruiting and training skilled labour, and the inherent time lag in establishing new manufacturing facilities.

Comparison with Adversaries:

Russia: Reports indicate that Russia has been able to maintain and even significantly increase its munitions production, particularly artillery shells, since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Estimates suggest Russian factories are producing millions of shells annually, reportedly at a lower cost per unit than Western equivalents. This output has given Russian forces a notable advantage in firepower at various stages of the conflict.

China: While specific, verified figures for China's munitions production are not readily available in the public domain, it is widely understood to possess a very large and rapidly modernising defence industrial base capable of producing a vast range of munitions in significant quantities.
Overall Context:

The UK, like its NATO allies, is in a phase of actively working to reverse a long-term decline in munitions production capacity. While significant investments are being made and new production lines are coming online, the scale of output, particularly for items like artillery shells, has lagged behind nations like Russia.

The current strategy is focused on increasing self-reliance, contributing to allied efforts (such as supporting Ukraine), and ensuring the UK armed forces are adequately supplied for future contingencies in a more dangerous world. The success of these initiatives will be measured over the coming years as new facilities become fully operational and supply chains adapt.

The landscape of global munitions production has been dramatically reshaped by the war in Ukraine, exposing critical shortfalls and prompting a significant drive to ramp up manufacturing across NATO countries, including the UK. Here's a comparison of the UK's efforts and capacity relative to other key players:

1. United Kingdom: Ambitious Expansion from a Lower Base

Recent Announcements (June 2025): The UK government has just announced a £1.5 billion investment to build at least six new munitions and energetics factories. This is part of a plan to create an "always on" munitions production capacity, allowing for rapid scaling if needed. The aim is to procure up to 7,000 UK-built long-range weapons and spend £6 billion on munitions in the current parliamentary term (up to 2029).

Addressing Past Underinvestment: Reports indicate that UK ordnance stockpiles had dwindled due to decades of under-investment and a previous reliance on outsourced explosives manufacturing. The new strategy aims to "end the hollowing out" of the armed forces and bolster the domestic industrial base.

Specific Increases:
BAE Systems is significantly increasing 155mm artillery shell production (a reported 16-fold increase at its Glascoed facility compared to pre-Ukraine war levels, though exact figures are withheld for security). An older report (April 2025) mentioned an eightfold increase.

The UK is also focused on boosting domestic production of military-grade explosives (like RDX) to reduce reliance on US and French imports.

Context: The UK's efforts are part of a broader push to meet the demands of potential high-tempo warfare and to demonstrate commitment to NATO. The lessons from Ukraine, particularly the vast consumption of artillery shells, have been a major wake-up call.

2. Russia: Mobilized and Outpacing in Key Areas

Current Production: Russia has significantly mobilized its defence industry since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Reports from early-to-mid 2025 indicate Russia is producing artillery munitions (e.g., 152mm shells) at a rate significantly higher than European NATO members combined. Some estimates suggest Russia produces around 250,000 artillery munitions per month (3 million a year), with other reports suggesting it could be as high as 4.5 million annually.

Cost Advantage: Russia is also producing these shells at a much lower cost (around $1,000 per 152mm shell) compared to European equivalents ($4,000-$8,000 per 155mm shell).

Strategic Advantage: This continued advantage in defence production is seen as a strategic threat to NATO and its deterrence capabilities. Russia has also ramped up production of cruise and ballistic missiles.

New Technologies: Russia is reportedly developing technologies to produce explosives from alternative materials like wood, aiming to reduce bottlenecks in traditional supply chains.

3. United States: Massive Scale-Up Underway

Target: The US Army is aggressively expanding its 155mm artillery shell production, aiming for 100,000 rounds per month by 2026 (some reports mention this target for an earlier date). This is a substantial increase from pre-war levels (which have already more than tripled since 2022).

New Facilities: New Load, Assemble, and Pack (LAP) facilities are being opened, with one in Arkansas, for example, set to produce 50,000 shells per month when fully operational.

Challenges: Despite these efforts, the US faces challenges, including a whittled-down defence industrial base (DIB) with few prime contractors, bureaucratic hurdles, and the sheer volume of munitions already supplied to Ukraine (over 3 million 155mm rounds by early 2025). Replenishing these stocks will take years even at increased production rates.

Broader Industrial Base Concerns: Some analyses highlight that US defence production capacity is "woefully inadequate" for a major conflict, pointing to the limited number of advanced aircraft or missiles that can be produced annually compared to historical (WWII) outputs.

4. European NATO Allies (Excluding UK): Collective but Varied Efforts

Germany: Defence giant Rheinmetall is massively increasing artillery shell production. Its goal is to produce 1.1 million shells annually by 2027 across its European plants (up from 70,000 before 2022). A new plant in Unterlüß, Germany, aims to produce 350,000 shells annually from 2026. Rheinmetall is also increasing gunpowder production.

France: French defence companies like KNDS (artillery systems) and Eurenco (powders and explosives) are also ramping up production significantly. France is a major arms exporter.

Eastern Europe: Countries like Poland, the Czech Republic, and Romania are reviving their defence industries and becoming important production hubs, especially for Soviet-calibre and increasingly NATO-standard munitions.

EU Initiatives: The European Union has launched initiatives like the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) with €500 million to boost the bloc's manufacturing capacity. The aim was to reach an annual production capacity of 1 million shells in 2025, and a target of 2 million for 2025 was mentioned (though the timeframe for this higher figure varies in reports).

Challenges: European nations face challenges including reliance on China for some raw materials and components (like cotton fibres for nitrocellulose), a shortage of skilled labour, and the need for sustained investment and long-term contracts to give industry confidence. The production cycle for some advanced missiles remains slow.
Key Comparative Points:

Current Output vs. Russia: Russia is currently out-producing the US and Europe combined in critical areas like artillery shells.

Ramp-Up Speed: Western nations, including the UK, are in a race to rapidly increase production. While significant progress is being made, it started from a lower "peacetime" base compared to Russia's more centralized and mobilized war economy.

Stockpiles: The war in Ukraine has exposed that many Western nations, including the UK, had insufficient stockpiles for sustained high-intensity conflict. Replenishing these and building larger reserves is a key driver of increased production.

Industrial Base Depth: Russia has a large, state-controlled defence industry. The US has a powerful but more consolidated DIB. Europe has a more fragmented industrial base, though major players like Rheinmetall are expanding significantly. The UK is trying to rebuild and expand its sovereign capacity.
Cost: Russia appears to have a significant cost advantage in producing large volumes of conventional munitions.

Long-Range Weapons: The UK's new focus on procuring 7,000 UK-built long-range weapons is a significant development, aiming to enhance its own deep-strike capabilities.
In Summary:

The UK is making substantial new investments to significantly boost its domestic munitions production, aiming to reverse decades of decline and reduce reliance on imports. This is part of a broader NATO-wide effort to rearm and prepare for a more dangerous world. However, the UK, like its allies, is playing catch-up, particularly when compared to Russia's current high-volume output of key munitions like artillery shells.

The success of these plans will depend on sustained investment, overcoming supply chain bottlenecks, and developing the necessary skilled workforce. While ambitions are high, the scale of the challenge means it will take time for UK and wider Western production to fully meet the demands of the new security environment.