Job estimates for wind generation by 2030

14th July 2025

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) has refreshed its evidence base on the potential for renewable electricity technologies to support domestic jobs in Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales). This does not apply to Northern Ireland.

DESNZ estimates that the offshore and onshore wind sectors could support up to 145,000 direct and indirect job across Great Britain by the end of the decade.

This consists of up to:

100,000 jobs for offshore wind
45,000 jobs for onshore wind

This note outlines the methodology used to produce these estimates.

The estimates focus on direct and indirect jobs supported by the sectors, excluding any jobs induced through employment in the wind sectors, in line with the Office of National Statistics Low Carbon Renewable Energy Economy (LCREE) survey. These employment categories are defined as:

Direct jobs (included): employment that is directly within the primary industry or sector under consideration (for example construction of wind farms and/or manufacturing of wind turbines)
Indirect jobs (included): employment generated in industries that supply goods or services to the primary sector (including the wider supply chain)
Induced jobs (excluded): employment resulting from the spending of wages by workers in direct and indirect employment, leading to increased demand in other sectors.

DESNZ used different methodologies for the onshore wind and offshore wind sectors due to differences in technology characteristics and evidence bases. The underlying assumptions and definitions used have been designed to be as consistent as possible with each other, and the government's clean power mission. To support the transparency of our analysis DESNZ has provided this methodology note to explain how these estimates have been produced.

Uncertainty around future jobs estimates
As with any medium-term forecast of employment, these estimates have some inherent uncertainty. For example, individual projects will deliver to a range of timelines which are difficult to predict in advance. This, in turn, makes it difficult to predict with certainty when jobs will materialise.

Previous government and industry estimates have reflected a reasonable and credible potential - an ‘up to' rather than a central view. DESNZ has followed that precedent.

Estimates are based on a range of credible, evidence-based assumptions. DESNZ has taken a medium-high view of deployment potential consistent with the DESNZ clean power action plan[footnote 1]. For other assumptions, where there is a choice, DESNZ has chosen a reasonable high end of credible options. For offshore wind, this includes assumptions such as global renewable deployment and market share for domestic manufacturing.

Sources and assumptions vary by technology to reflect the best available evidence for that technology. For onshore wind, this includes building on methodologies established through existing published evidence from Scotland and applying them at a Great Britain level. This is deemed appropriate given that we have no reason to believe the skills requirements for these technologies would differ meaningfully across Great Britain. All estimates are rounded to ensure they can be confidently used at the granularity quoted.

Future employment estimates for onshore wind
Estimate
The onshore wind sector could support up to 45,000 direct and indirect jobs in Great Britain by 2030.

Methodology summary
The 2030 estimate is based on a scenario where up to 29 gigawatts (GW) of installed onshore wind capacity is achieved by 2030.This is in line with the top of the clean power action plan range for onshore wind[footnote 2]. The capacity range for onshore wind outlined in the Clean Power Action Plan is 27 to 29 GW, a narrower range than for offshore wind where there is more uncertainty over final requirement in 2030.

The methodology for direct employment is primarily based on research commissioned by ClimateXChange (funded by the Scottish Government) to consider the workforce and skills requirements to support up to 20 GW of installed onshore wind capacity by 2030 in Scotland[footnote 3]. The report estimates were based on intelligence from hundreds of onshore wind projects - providing a full time equivalent (FTE) per GW ratios (jobs-intensity) for a typical installation by project phase. The modelling assumptions were validated by more than 20 Scottish onshore wind stakeholders in spring 2024.

There are challenges in forecasting the number of jobs supported in any sector. Particularly for onshore wind, there is limited data and evidence available on jobs supported in England due to the ban on onshore wind deployment which has been in place since 2015 and was lifted in 2024.

The ClimateXChange research focuses on the workforce requirements in Scotland, where the vast majority of recent deployment has occurred in Great Britain. As noted above, we are therefore making an implicit assumption that these findings apply to the rest of Great Britain. The final estimates have been compared with other industry and research forecasts. As well as benchmarked against the historic estimates from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy (LCREE) survey publication[footnote 4].

The export market for onshore wind is estimated to be relatively small[footnote 5], therefore we have not made any explicit assumption for jobs supported by exports.

The above is part of a bigger report. To read it in full go HERE
HERE